2015 Belmont

Brisnet is giving away Belmont past performances:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BelmontStakes15.pdf

I won't be Nag-O-Calcing this race because I know the Preakness was sort of the Freakness. Awful weather and track condition. It was lucky American Pharoah came out alive, much less won.

As I recall, I Nagged the Preakness right after the race and came up with 100 or so.  Let's say that is 15% slower than AP is capable of running. The horse was geared down and still won easy.

Consequently, I expect the race to be for second.

If AP wins, the payoffs will all be quite small, but you may be able to profit if you guess the runners up correctly. There were good exacta payouts on both the Derby and Preakness, but AP may be 1/5 here. I don't think a wheel is going to profit this time.

I may drop a few exotics that do not include AP, just on the off-chance the jockey falls off or something. An exotic payout that does not include the favorite should be abnormally large for an eight horse field. The field size will keep it from being monstrous, however. There are only 56 possible exacta combinations, after all.

Good luck to all the horses and YOU, and especially to American Pharoah in his quest to number Triple Crown winners at an even dozen!

Nag-O-Calcing the 2015 Preakness

Just the last race. I'm lazy.

1 American Pharoah,122
2 Dortmund,118
3 Mr. Z,101x,107
4 Danzig Moon,113
5 Tale of Verve,79
6 Bodhisattva,86
7 Divining Rod,113
8 Firing Line,121

Nag-O-Calc III mimics the pundits.

1 American Pharoah,122
8 Firing Line,121
2 Dortmund,118
4 Danzig Moon,113
7 Divining Rod,113
3 Mr. Z,101x,107
6 Bodhisattva,86
5 Tale of Verve,79

As I recall, I "nagged" 121 for AP going into the Derby. He went wide, got brushed and still ran 122.

From outside bad post position to inside bad, it looks like this horse will have to earn his shot at history.

Free Preakness Past Performances

If you are looking for free PP's, look here. http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Preakness15.pdf

Speed May Steal Belmont

Well, I got hold of some past performances for the 2014 Belmont Stakes and I have to say the Peter Pan looks impressive 1:48 1/5 in the slop at Belmont for Tonalist. That's a Nag-O-Calc 143. Would be 123 on a fast track and that is still fast enough to win.

Could be my tools need updating, but the top 3 horses in the Peter Pan look to make an impact in the Belmont. Long odds, too.

I'm starting to think the TC is in question. Good luck to California Chrome but I have to bet mostly against the odds. I don't know any other way to play.

Here's my scratchings:

2014 Belmont

So, my numbers for the Peter Pan Stakes come back huge.

Tonalist  143 (123 if fast track. Still the best SR.)
Commissioner
Matterhorn

Wicked Strong
California Chrome
Matusak

6 * 5 = $30 exacta?

Tonalist sprinted to 46.4 which should give him the lead vs 47.2 others.

Could be a lot of speed up front. If track is tiring...

On the other hand, if track is playing speedy. Tonalist might go WTW.

Six horse exacta box = $30
Tonalist / all = $10
Wicked Strong / all = $10
California Chrome = $1 Superfecta: 1 / 2,3,4 / 2,3,4,5 / 2,3,4,5,6 = $27
(NOTE: These are not program numbers, these are "choices." Your choices for 2nd,3rd,4th etc.)
$77 leaves $7
$2 WIN Commissioner, Matterhorn
$3 WIN Matuzak

Belmont Stakes 2014

A work in progress...

Victor Espinoza has been here before. One win away from the elusive Triple Crown.

War Emblem stumbled out of the gate and tired from the mile and a half effort. The horse was one-dimensional Espinoza would say later. War Emblem was good, but this horse is better.

The latest horse to threaten the Triple is California Chrome. Victor has never lost a race on this horse. Ever.

California Chrome and Victor Espinoza have won six huge races in a row, convincingly. Never close. Ever.

The trouble of course, is the horse is 3/5. Now if you can get 3/2 on 3/5, that's OK but this is 3/5, maybe less. Probably less. Probably 1/5.

The next trouble is that it has rained and the track will likely be tiring for any horse near the lead.

Either someone goes wire to wire or someone grinds one out. That's the usual Belmont. Usually closers.

Consider the speed if it can get away, but right now I'm thinking about grinders.

There is one grinder who loves this track and that is Wicked Strong. This horse will just grind and grind and grind and grind and grind and grind and grind.

And then he will grind some more.

He's a grinder. And he's my top contender right now for Belmont 2014. Wicked Strong.

Got a Hunch bet a Bunch

I've been under the weather for the better part of a month, so this has been a bizarre Classic series for me.

I was pretty excited about Dullahan's chances in the Preakness, but the owners decided not to run him.

Everybody seems enamored with Bodemeister and for good reason. There doesn't seem to be much speed to go with him and Maryland favors speed. The morning line is 8/5. I don't like 8/5.

I like Dale Romans. He was supposed to take Dullahan here, but instead finds himself bringing Cozzetti, a horse I think is much better than his 30-1 morning line. Bodemeister annihilated Cozzetti by 9 3/4 lengths in the Arkansas Derby. However, Cozzetti is well-rested while the favorite has had 3 races in 5 weeks.

At 30-1, you don't have to risk much and won't be terribly disappointed if the horse runs up the track.

So, there it is. Just a hunch. If Bodemeister folds the exotics should light the tote board. He ain't likely to fold, given the track and his speed, but you just never know in this game. I'm tossing him (again) and going with Dale Romans (again.)

Good luck to all!

Kentucky Derby 2012

Num	Name	NAG	Trainer	Jockey	MLine
1	Daddy Long Legs	115	Aidan O'Brien	Colm O'Donoghue	30
2	Optimizer	85	D. Lukas	Jon Court	50
3	Take Charge Indy	119	Patrick Byrne	Calvin Borel	15
4	Union Rags	117	Michael Matz	Julien Leparoux	9/2
5	Dullahan	122	Dale Romans	Kent Desormeaux	8
6	Bodemeister	109	Bob Baffert	Mike Smith	4
7	Rousing Sermon	102	Jerry Hollendorfer	Jose Lezcano	50
8	Creative Cause	116	Mike Harrington	Joel Rosario	12
9	Trinniberg	100	Bisnath Parboo	Willie Martinez	50
10	Daddy Nose Best	99	Steven Asmussen	Garrett Gomez	15
11	Alpha	100	Kiaran McLaughlin	Rajiv Maragh	15
12	Prospective	112	Mark Casse	Luis Contreras	30
13	Went the Day Well	94	H. Motion	John Velazquez	20
14	Hansen	120	Michael Maker	Ramon Dominguez	10
15	Gemologist	100	Todd Pletcher	Javier Castellano	6
16	El Padrino	115	Todd Pletcher	Rafael Bejarano	20
17	Done Talking	76	Hamilton Smith	Sheldon Russell	50
18	Sabercat	94	Steven Asmussen	Corey Nakatani	30
19	I'll Have Another	116	Doug O'Neill	Mario Gutierrez	12
20	Liaison	85	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia	50
5 Dullahan 122 14 Hansen 120 3 Take Charge Indy 119 4 Union Rags 117 8 Creative Cause 116 19 I'll Have Another 116 1 Daddy Long Legs 115 16 El Padrino 115