I neglected to post my pick for the Derby here, but Journalism ran 2nd. He's my pick for the Preakness as well. Pretty standard pick, I know. The horse just figures but you'll be lucky for 3/5 odds.
I like American Promise at 15-1 as well. High odds are intoxicating but they are high for a reason.
The tradeoff between odds and payoff is where you make your money in this game. You need to consistently bet horses with a better chance to win than their odds indicate. It's hard. Real hard.
The average takeout is about 20% on straight bets (win, place and show.) Figure people lose on average at least 20% over time, probably more if they play exotics. It's a tough game but it's beautiful.
If you use Twinspires.com you may be familiar with the Profit Line where you can sort by their idea of fair odds. The profit line will turn green when the actual odds are higher than the profit line fair odds.
That really has to be useful.
Caveats may be avoiding maiden races and races with foreign entrants.
Anyway. I am still here. Still thinking.
Box Journalism with American Promise then toss a few underneath for fun.
See you later.
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