I have "gone live" picking a few tracks a day for a small fee.
$6 gets you 3 tracks of top selections
Some days there are free picks. Sometimes I'll post my ideas there, as this venue seems to be dying.
Try patreon/olrailbird
Saturday, June 28, 2025
Thursday, May 15, 2025
Preakness this Saturday
I neglected to post my pick for the Derby here, but Journalism ran 2nd. He's my pick for the Preakness as well. Pretty standard pick, I know. The horse just figures but you'll be lucky for 3/5 odds.
I like American Promise at 15-1 as well. High odds are intoxicating but they are high for a reason.
The tradeoff between odds and payoff is where you make your money in this game. You need to consistently bet horses with a better chance to win than their odds indicate. It's hard. Real hard.
The average takeout is about 20% on straight bets (win, place and show.) Figure people lose on average at least 20% over time, probably more if they play exotics. It's a tough game but it's beautiful.
If you use Twinspires.com you may be familiar with the Profit Line where you can sort by their idea of fair odds. The profit line will turn green when the actual odds are higher than the profit line fair odds.
That really has to be useful.
Caveats may be avoiding maiden races and races with foreign entrants.
Anyway. I am still here. Still thinking.
Box Journalism with American Promise then toss a few underneath for fun.
See you later.
Saturday, April 19, 2025
Olrailbird Update
The algorithm seems to have stabilized. I have only occasionally fixed (and introduced) bugs.
I don't think my opinion of various tracks is 100% correct, but most of the ones I use frequently are pretty close. I wonder a bit if OP is too high and CNL a bit too low. American Promise?
Oaklawn Park is my home track. I live about a mile away. You would think that would make it easy to tell its class and speed, but really none of this handicapping stuff is easy.
Whatever my opinion of any track, if all the horses in a race ran at that track, then only their times and track conditions can tell them apart. Speed ratings vary by track the way I do them. Different tracks have different adjustments based on my opinion. Horses who run at Tampa Bay Downs are not generally of the same class as here at Oaklawn. Some tracks are just faster than others. I have a general variant for each track in turf and dirt.
I mean, I don't think you'd expect a Derby winner to come out of Tampa Bay, but an extraordinary horse might score a high enough speed rating there to appear competitive. And yet, it's Tampa Bay, right?
So, my track variants are mostly adjusted from default by watching race outcomes and changing variants to try to match outcomes. Of course, I look at Beyer and BRIS ratings as well as any other information I can find. However, mostly it's me trying to match ratings to performance. It's a slow process.
On Friday the 18th of April 2025, I felt pretty confident in the software but suffered 10 straight losers. Absolutely shut out of winners. In fact, few of the races resembled anything like my predictions.
As bad as Friday was, Saturday was great. Had six of twelve winners. As usual, hitting exotics proved difficult. Oaklawn seems to always put some strange horse between my first and second choices, taking my exotic money.
Cold and hot. Hot and cold. The idea is to be HOT all the time, eh? I'm working on it.
Wednesday, March 19, 2025
Keeping Track
You really need to start keeping track of your bets. At least some of your bets. Maybe.
Honestly, if you just knew who took your loosh, you'd be better off.
Let's say you've been losing. It happens.
When it starts to feel like everything is going around and around and around until you just can't quite remember why those fellas are calling every day.
Actually, everything is just fine.
It's marvelous.
Remember to vote Purple.
Wednesday, February 26, 2025
Faster and Better!
The algorithm has evolved significantly over the last month. There were many bugfixes and a significant amount of balancing the mixture of data that leads to the selections.
In just the last day or so, I found a python library that allows one program to speak to another using TCP ports. After invoking the base functionality, the algorithm now figures a race card in about 2 seconds versus about 3 minutes prior to this change.
Basically, my algorithm must call my speed rating program four times for each horse. Each call takes about half a second as there is a lot of overhead for one process to call another process. I thought I would have to merge the two programs for this kind of speed, but it turns out I just needed a library called zmq.
zmq enables simple communication across python scripts through various methods. I chose to use the TPC port connection method. Adding a small function to the speed rating program for a server and a similar function to the algorithm has enabled very fast handicapping speed.
Honestly, I'm just getting used to having new output faster than I can ask for it. This will change everything as far as tuning up the track variants and testing different alchemic combinations of handicapping factors.
zmq is changing my way of thinking about programming. It opens up a world of possibilities. You can use zmq to implement communication between different servers running at the same time.
zmq is free, fast, small, stable and cross-platform. https://zeromq.org/
Friday, January 31, 2025
Algorithm update
As I may have mentioned, I am presently using a computer algorithm of my own design to handicap horses. I am using data from Bloodstock Research and writing the software in Python using the Pandas data library.
This started out as a test but has taken on a life of its own as the program has evolved. I have spent a lot of time debugging it because I never really took the time to design it. I just kept chiseling away until now I think it is very close to being what I never envisioned.
It seems like I'm having a bad year, but it must all be in the exotics as flat bets to win are breaking even.
The truth is there were a lot of bugs in the code when Oaklawn started up back in December. I've been trouble-shooting more than adding things. There are so many different things that have to be accounted for just to keep the program from crashing due to unforeseen circumstances. Jockeys fall off. Horses ran at a foreign track. And so many tracks and distances to attempt to account for. It's really pretty wild.
I think it's working per design, as far as doing what it was written to do. It uses another program that needs a little tweaking, but that is another story.
It's a pretty solid automatic handicapper right now, but I am bothered by workouts. The algorithm looks at each horse's last two workouts and uses the higher one as it's workout score. If they are both slow workouts, that fairly dooms a horse's chance of topping the list.
Not every workout is meant to be speedy. Some are just routine maintenance. The algorithm doesn't know that. It just takes the faster one. I'm starting to think just having a workout is worth more than a very low speed rating score.
I think I'll have to establish a higher minimum rating for workouts, just to boost horses like this. BRIS provides the average race speed rating, and it may be useful to generate a replacement value. Workouts are usually slower than a horse runs, so perhaps two-thirds of the race rating?
Also, I'm getting tired of calling it "The Algorithm."
Friday, January 17, 2025
Programming the Ponies
I have been using computers to handicap horses for many years. My first computer was an Atari 400. It had 16K of RAM, a crude BASIC language and cassette tape storage.
Hey, that was a big step up from calculators. I had borrowed a friend's HP41C to write some reverse Polish handicappers.
What I'm saying is, I've been around a while - maybe too long.
Nowadays the hype is all about artificial intelligence (AI,) but I would rather stick to human intelligence as there's little enough of that to go around, anyway.
Although I am no programmer, I am pretty good at hacking small ideas into snippets of code.
The trouble I'm lazy. I don't want to learn the proper way to code or how to test or document. I like learning the hard way. I just want the program to do what I need done right now.
Such little snippets tend to grow over time. My latest "program" is a Python algorithm written to learn the pandas library by combining various data about horses into a selection method that sorts the race by most likely to win. It ranks the horses and outputs a semi-pretty text table from top to bottom.
That code started with, "Hey, I wonder how to use the pandas library?"
It's a weird library. I've been trying to wrap my head around it for two years. It is slowly sinking in how to use it and abuse it. You could say I monkey around with it until it works.
I have found that if you just keep trying, you'll eventually either figure it out or not. Persistence.
Anyway, I am kind of in-between writing programs and just cleaning up code, debugging a little and updating some offsets for different racetracks.
The Algorithm is now being used to make selections at Oaklawn Park in beautiful Hot Springs Arkansas. You can follow my picks on Patreon and on my website. I may even start adding some video to YouTube.
Thursday, December 5, 2024
Oaklawn Opens 2024
Trying to bring my selections to the web here... Wish I could just post them,
but Google trashes everything.
Heh. Don't understand Blogspot anymore. Prolly going away soon... Here's an
attempt to post picks right here. Sorry:
STEVE'S SELECTIONS 12-06-2024 Oaklawn Park olrailbird.com (12/5/2024 21:27:46) RACE 1 Oaklawn Park Purse: 34000 Distance: 1320 Type: M AgeSex: BUM RCond: DMENTRIES 1ST OPX DECEMBER 6 STATE-BRED 6F N34000 20000 0 BUM 6 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP MAIDEN CLAIMING 20000-ALL PURSE $34000 (12:30) (14) PGM HorseName ML RS SPR PPR SR1 Finish1 Beat1 FTime1 Dist1 x TJR RS1 TV1 Pick NagRat WNagRat 14 AIR CASTLE 8.0 P 69 98.8 68.0 3 1.5 108.1 1,870.0 1.8 -2.0 68.0 30.0 99.0 92 47 8 RANGE LIFE 2.5 P 69 105.6 71.0 2 4.2 72.1 1,320.0 0.9 -2.0 79.0 12.0 90.7 75 52 3 SENDING 15.0 NA 69 87.7 54.0 7 8.0 56.9 1,100.0 0.7 -0.2 82.0 10.0 87.9 87 54 11 PRINCIPAL ANITA 12.0 S 69 98.9 58.0 6 9.0 102.1 1,760.0 1.4 -2.0 61.0 22.0 85.6 48 77 2 TACTICAL EXPRESS 30.0 E 69 87.4 55.0 6 8.0 56.9 1,100.0 0.7 0.0 82.0 10.0 84.4 87 35 9 ADAMANTLY 4.5 E/P 69 100.1 65.0 3 6.2 57.5 1,100.0 0.4 0.0 86.0 8.0 82.8 70 28 1 HOT SHOT SHOPPER 20.0 P 69 89.8 55.0 4 9.2 70.7 1,320.0 0.4 0.0 78.0 11.0 80.9 67 45 5 RED SUNSHINE 20.0 E 69 85.6 57.0 8 5.0 90.8 1,650.0 0.3 0.0 78.0 10.0 79.8 73 37 13 CHUCK WILLS WIDOW 8.0 P 69 95.9 58.0 7 9.2 102.1 1,760.0 1.0 0.1 61.0 22.0 78.7 48 42 10 QUEEN WILHELMINA 12.0 NA 69 96.5 55.0 9 12.0 102.1 1,760.0 2.1 -0.8 58.0 22.0 76.8 43 42 7 KOKOMO STARLET 3.0 E 69 103.9 62.0 3 3.0 60.1 1,100.0 0.4 -2.0 83.0 10.0 70.2 41 5 12 MO HOPEFUL 15.0 NA 69 92.8 41.0 9 16.5 73.3 1,320.0 2.0 0.0 60.0 12.0 70.1 58 28 6 SKY RAVEN 15.0 E 69 86.6 29.0 8 28.2 72.4 1,320.0 0.9 -2.0 53.0 17.0 68.2 39 67 4 PALMILLA'S BET 6.0 S 69 98.1 51.0 4 17.8 73.2 1,320.0 0.9 -0.6 60.0 22.0 57.5 4 0 RACE 2 Oaklawn Park Purse: 62000 Distance: 1320 Type: C AgeSex: BUN RCond: DCENTRIES 2ND OPX DECEMBER 6 6F H62000 30000 0 BUN 6 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP CLAIMING 30000-25000 PURSE $62000 (12:58) (8 ) PGM HorseName ML RS SPR PPR SR1 Finish1 Beat1 FTime1 Dist1 x TJR RS1 TV1 Pick NagRat WNagRat 3 HERN 5.0 P 90 120.5 87.0 1 1.0 102.1 1,830.0 1.0 0.0 86.0 21.0 112.9 91 74 5 LATE NITE RADIO 3.0 S 90 122.1 88.0 2 2.2 69.9 1,320.0 1.8 0.0 92.0 9.0 105.9 108 35 1 DAZZLEMESILVER 4.5 E/P 90 119.8 80.0 5 4.5 68.9 1,320.0 0.8 -0.5 91.0 7.0 104.9 102 60 4 BLOW TORCH 12.0 S 90 121.4 87.0 5 3.5 77.5 1,430.0 0.5 -2.0 86.0 14.0 99.6 82 45 2 GOT THUNDER 4.0 P 90 124.8 84.0 10 7.5 83.5 1,540.0 1.2 2.6 78.0 9.0 95.5 75 42 7 I GOT NO MUNNY 3.5 P 90 122.5 77.0 6 7.0 68.9 1,320.0 1.2 -0.7 89.0 7.0 95.2 96 21 8 CIRCLE BACK JACK 12.0 E/P 90 115.5 77.0 6 5.2 76.4 1,430.0 0.7 0.7 87.0 7.0 91.5 82 28 6 PALACE KITTEN 20.0 S 90 112.7 70.0 8 19.8 69.3 1,320.0 0.7 -0.6 74.0 9.0 83.4 59 42 RACE 3 Oaklawn Park Purse: 34000 Distance: 1870 Type: M AgeSex: BUN RCond: DMENTRIES 3RD OPX DECEMBER 6 8.5F I34000 20000 0 BUN 1 1/16 MILES DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP MAIDEN CLAIMING 20000-ALL PURSE $34000 (01:26) (9 ) PGM HorseName ML RS SPR PPR SR1 Finish1 Beat1 FTime1 Dist1 x TJR RS1 TV1 Pick NagRat WNagRat 7 TIS CHARMING 3.0 S 75 115.5 73.0 8 14.0 104.5 1,870.0 1.5 0.8 78.0 16.0 91.7 69 35 9 TORNADO ROAD 12.0 NA 75 102.7 75.0 4 9.0 71.0 1,320.0 1.5 1.8 77.0 17.0 90.6 66 40 6 CHOU CHOU D'AVEN 8.0 S 75 110.9 66.0 7 9.5 69.5 1,320.0 1.7 -0.5 77.0 11.0 90.3 80 42 8 ROCKET NIGHT 12.0 E/P 75 108.9 65.0 7 11.0 97.1 1,760.0 0.8 -0.7 71.0 17.0 87.8 76 35 4 AWOL 3.5 NA 75 110.9 65.0 4 11.0 106.5 1,870.0 1.5 -0.3 63.0 23.0 87.5 63 40 1 BAYOU JUSTICE 4.0 S 75 108.5 78.0 3 3.0 101.5 1,760.0 0.6 0.0 69.0 25.0 86.3 38 45 3 ZEE FIRE 20.0 P 75 104.4 66.0 2 1.2 73.4 1,320.0 0.3 -1.2 80.0 21.0 81.1 41 30 2 GREERS FERRY 4.5 S 75 109.8 67.0 2 1.0 101.1 1,760.0 0.5 -1.2 77.0 17.0 78.4 46 18 5 MIND HUNTER 8.0 P 75 100.9 63.0 5 10.5 93.2 1,650.0 0.6 -0.6 64.0 25.0 71.5 31 10 RACE 4 Oaklawn Park Purse: 33000 Distance: 1870 Type: C AgeSex: BUN RCond: DCENTRIES 4TH OPX DECEMBER 6 8.5F N33000 10000 0 BUN 1 1/16 MILES DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP CLAIMING 10000-ALL PURSE $33000 (01:54) (14) PGM HorseName ML RS SPR PPR SR1 Finish1 Beat1 FTime1 Dist1 x TJR RS1 TV1 Pick NagRat WNagRat 12 FACE VALUE 4.0 E/P 84 117.7 79.0 4 9.0 112.7 1,980.0 1.2 1.9 70.0 23.0 99.9 68 62 6 PRINCE IS MY BOY 10.0 E/P 84 107.5 80.0 1 6.5 102.3 1,830.0 0.5 -2.0 85.0 17.0 99.3 90 45 8 NEPAL UP 2.5 S 84 119.5 76.0 5 12.2 110.7 1,980.0 1.7 2.9 73.0 17.0 97.2 71 52 5 TAILLIGHTS 8.0 E/P 84 115.9 83.0 3 1.8 70.1 1,320.0 1.0 0.0 92.0 10.0 95.3 93 13 13 AMERICAN HERO 6.0 S 84 107.5 72.0 4 11.8 101.2 1,830.0 0.6 15.8 80.0 10.0 93.3 70 32 10 MANSOURA 20.0 E 84 97.8 62.0 1 1.2 98.8 1,760.0 1.1 0.0 76.0 24.0 93.1 67 57 1 EUCLID AVENUE 10.0 E 84 103.2 72.0 4 2.5 107.2 1,870.0 0.5 0.0 78.0 19.0 90.1 68 40 11 GOLD BARON 20.0 P 84 104.3 69.0 4 10.8 98.7 1,760.0 0.7 0.0 79.0 10.0 87.5 52 69 3 STAR NATION 12.0 S 84 104.0 70.0 6 13.2 83.5 1,540.0 1.4 4.0 73.0 15.0 86.9 63 35 9 COASTAL BRINK 8.0 E/P 84 110.3 67.0 4 11.2 98.0 1,760.0 1.7 -0.6 83.0 12.0 85.7 58 35 7 OUR HEAVENLY GIFT 15.0 E/P 84 99.3 62.0 1 1.0 99.9 1,760.0 0.7 -1.1 82.0 12.0 80.9 58 32 4 COST BASIS 6.0 E 84 119.2 71.0 7 20.5 104.3 1,870.0 1.5 -0.9 64.0 17.0 78.3 53 8 2 GO CATS 15.0 E/P 84 109.0 57.0 9 18.5 92.4 1,650.0 0.9 0.0 82.0 8.0 70.9 20 34 14 VANISKY 20.0 E/P 84 100.1 52.0 7 23.8 103.8 1,830.0 0.5 0.0 53.0 22.0 66.1 36 10 RACE 5 Oaklawn Park Purse: 131000 Distance: 1320 Type: AO AgeSex: BUM RCond: DAENTRIES 5TH OPX DECEMBER 6 6F J131000 0 BUM 6 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING PURSE $131000 (02:22) (10) PGM HorseName ML RS SPR PPR SR1 Finish1 Beat1 FTime1 Dist1 x TJR RS1 TV1 Pick NagRat WNagRat 7 ALWAYS ANGELS 2.5 S 95 124.2 86.0 2 5.2 69.7 1,320.0 0.9 0.5 87.0 12.0 107.5 91 67 3 CONNIE K 12.0 E 95 123.2 81.0 5 4.8 64.5 1,210.0 1.1 -2.0 86.0 15.0 106.7 90 69 4 CHANDANA 15.0 E/P 95 122.4 77.0 7 6.8 64.5 1,210.0 1.3 -0.8 84.0 15.0 103.3 85 62 8 BACKYARD MONEY 15.0 P 95 123.2 84.0 4 5.5 77.1 1,430.0 1.5 0.2 86.0 10.0 101.4 80 57 1 DEALING JUSTICE 8.0 E/P 95 121.4 80.0 4 7.2 69.6 1,320.0 1.2 -0.8 86.0 10.0 100.7 73 72 5 STORY HOUR 10.0 E/P 95 124.4 79.0 5 8.2 106.1 1,870.0 0.9 0.1 76.0 22.0 100.6 78 47 10 LOVER GIRL 12.0 E/P 95 127.6 90.0 5 11.0 76.3 1,430.0 0.6 -2.0 85.0 11.0 99.6 78 50 6 PHAROAH'S HEART 2.0 S 95 127.2 89.0 1 2.8 99.9 1,760.0 0.9 2.6 72.0 30.0 99.5 70 17 2 MY FRIEND AMY 10.0 S 95 119.4 74.0 1 0.5 87.5 1,540.0 0.5 0.9 85.0 10.0 82.5 36 35 9 TITLED LADY 15.0 E/P 95 121.1 78.8 Q NaN 77.1 1,430.0 1.1 0.8 0.0 10.0 54.7 0 52 RACE 6 Oaklawn Park Purse: 33000 Distance: 1320 Type: C AgeSex: BUM RCond: DCENTRIES 6TH OPX DECEMBER 6 STATE-BRED 6F L33000 12500 0 BUM 6 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP CLAIMING 12500-ALL PURSE $33000 (02:50) (12) PGM HorseName ML RS SPR PPR SR1 Finish1 Beat1 FTime1 Dist1 x TJR RS1 TV1 Pick NagRat WNagRat 4 ONE WAY OR ANOTHER 2.0 E/P 82 112.0 72.0 1 3.0 72.7 1,320.0 3.0 -1.1 80.0 19.0 97.6 80 40 12 SUMMORYA 4.5 P 82 111.2 70.0 1 0.8 73.0 1,320.0 3.3 -0.6 78.0 16.0 94.5 74 42 7 KITIARA 10.0 E 82 106.0 67.0 4 4.8 79.8 1,430.0 0.3 0.0 79.0 23.0 92.7 53 64 2 ZONGS IRISH FROST 8.0 E/P 82 104.7 73.0 1 0.5 72.9 1,320.0 0.8 -0.2 78.0 22.0 92.4 62 47 1 SHE BE SHEEHAN 12.0 E/P 82 108.4 71.0 2 2.8 104.7 1,830.0 0.5 -2.0 70.0 18.0 90.8 65 62 8 GOLD STRATEGY 6.0 S 82 110.0 72.0 4 7.2 97.3 1,760.0 0.7 -2.0 88.0 6.0 90.3 68 57 11 PNEUMA 12.0 E/P 82 102.3 70.0 1 3.8 86.2 1,540.0 0.6 -2.0 74.0 20.0 86.2 69 28 10 NATURAL TOUCH 5.0 E 82 106.3 74.0 3 7.2 71.3 1,320.0 0.4 0.0 80.0 14.0 86.1 55 42 6 PETULA 15.0 E/P 82 97.4 55.0 8 13.8 90.5 1,650.0 0.6 0.0 74.0 14.0 75.2 47 32 3 DIXIE GIRL TO 30.0 S 82 96.8 47.0 6 27.0 99.8 1,760.0 0.7 0.0 50.0 23.0 59.6 23 3 5 QUEENIES WAY 30.0 E 82 89.1 26.0 8 29.2 71.0 1,320.0 0.6 -2.0 56.0 9.0 55.0 25 37 9 SHE'S STORMING 20.0 E 82 84.3 56.0 F NaN 105.8 1,830.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 20.0 43.6 0 32 RACE 7 Oaklawn Park Purse: 130000 Distance: 1870 Type: A AgeSex: BUN RCond: DAENTRIES 7TH OPX DECEMBER 6 8.5F N130000 0 BUN 1 1/16 MILES DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP ALLOWANCE PURSE $130000 (03:18) (14) PGM HorseName ML RS SPR PPR SR1 Finish1 Beat1 FTime1 Dist1 x TJR RS1 TV1 Pick NagRat WNagRat 6 EMPIRE BUILDER 12.0 E 95 126.3 90.0 1 0.1 102.5 1,830.0 0.4 -2.0 84.0 31.0 114.3 88 62 1 SIR GREYLIND 5.0 E/P 95 125.7 93.0 1 5.2 103.1 1,870.0 0.9 -0.5 91.0 10.0 110.0 97 64 5 GUNOE 2.0 E/P 95 133.5 92.0 3 4.8 109.8 1,980.0 1.1 -0.4 88.0 14.0 107.0 97 37 8 SHARP SPARK 10.0 P 95 120.7 88.0 1 7.5 96.7 1,760.0 0.3 -2.0 100.0 12.0 105.5 89 50 4 HARLEEZY 15.0 S 95 123.2 85.0 1 1.0 104.6 1,870.0 1.0 4.0 83.0 17.0 104.4 84 45 11 GET A JOB 4.5 E 95 128.3 82.0 1 2.2 110.7 1,980.0 0.9 -0.6 86.0 13.0 102.1 89 42 13 KING RUSSELL 6.0 E/P 95 125.6 84.0 4 4.0 104.3 1,870.0 1.4 -2.0 81.0 19.0 101.6 93 30 10 WITHOUT A TRACE 3.5 E/P 95 124.5 95.0 1 1.0 104.3 1,870.0 0.8 0.0 94.0 13.0 99.6 78 23 14 BEN DREAMING 20.0 E/P 95 117.2 83.0 2 1.8 105.0 1,870.0 0.4 -0.5 77.0 24.0 95.6 66 37 3 ZATARA 20.0 E/P 95 124.3 77.0 8 17.0 110.6 1,980.0 1.3 -0.8 73.0 15.0 94.1 71 47 9 ICE EXPRESS 30.0 E/P 95 109.7 68.0 6 9.0 70.4 1,320.0 1.0 0.7 83.0 13.0 92.1 72 47 2 CHARLESTON 20.0 E/P 95 122.2 84.0 2 2.2 73.0 1,320.0 1.9 0.0 81.0 26.0 90.3 43 15 12 SHATTUCK 30.0 S 95 111.4 62.0 7 16.0 97.4 1,760.0 1.1 2.8 73.0 14.0 85.7 55 47 7 DAILY GRIND 20.0 E/P 95 112.3 55.0 7 28.8 104.3 1,870.0 1.5 1.8 56.0 19.0 79.5 52 37 RACE 8 Oaklawn Park Purse: 110000 Distance: 1760 Type: S AgeSex: AOF RCond: DSENTRIES 8TH OPX DECEMBER 6 8F M110000 0 AOF 1 MILE DIRT THOROUGHBRED FILLIES 2 YEAR OLDS MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT PURSE $110000 (03:46) (13) PGM HorseName ML RS SPR PPR SR1 Finish1 Beat1 FTime1 Dist1 x TJR RS1 TV1 Pick NagRat WNagRat 3 ENTICING BEAUTY 3.5 S 82 122.1 82.0 3 2.5 70.1 1,320.0 1.3 -2.0 87.0 12.0 102.9 91 54 2 MIMI'S GRACE 4.0 E 82 121.8 75.0 2 0.1 98.4 1,760.0 1.1 -2.0 75.0 20.0 101.8 84 62 9 NANA GRACE 5.0 P 82 113.3 72.0 2 4.2 71.9 1,320.0 0.8 -0.7 77.0 16.0 94.1 65 64 1 ENSORCELL 12.0 NA 82 117.1 74.0 4 8.5 83.9 1,540.0 1.3 -2.0 75.0 12.0 92.8 70 59 8 SOMERVILLE 20.0 NA 82 114.0 64.0 5 9.0 98.4 1,760.0 1.3 -0.2 66.0 20.0 91.1 68 54 6 MOMENTARIO 12.0 E 82 118.2 73.0 6 10.0 83.9 1,540.0 1.3 -0.6 74.0 12.0 90.8 66 52 5 JENKIN 12.0 S 82 118.0 74.0 5 8.5 83.9 1,540.0 1.1 -0.8 75.0 12.0 90.4 70 44 10 VINO TIEMPO 20.0 NA 82 110.0 67.0 6 10.5 70.6 1,320.0 1.0 0.0 82.0 10.0 89.3 66 52 4 LEGAL EMPRESS 15.0 P 82 112.2 68.0 2 0.1 92.5 1,650.0 0.4 0.1 79.0 15.0 86.6 58 40 13 TAKE A LOOK 12.0 E 82 102.4 60.0 6 7.5 100.5 1,760.0 0.3 -0.5 76.0 24.0 86.5 52 47 12 BURIANA 20.0 S 82 113.0 67.0 6 18.5 83.0 1,540.0 1.1 -0.3 73.0 8.0 84.8 64 47 7 ZAGHRUTA 2.0 NA 82 90.0 60.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN 1.0 1.0 65.0 12.0 63.4 0 47 11 RUN NOT WALK 30.0 NA 82 90.0 60.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN 1.0 0.0 65.0 12.0 52.1 0 -7 RACE 9 Oaklawn Park Purse: 150000 Distance: 1210 Type: N AgeSex: AON RCond: DNENTRIES 9TH OPX DECEMBER 6 5.5F F150000 0 AON 5 1/2 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 2 YEAR OLDS NONGRADED STAKE PURSE $150000 (04:14) (6 ) PGM HorseName ML RS SPR PPR SR1 Finish1 Beat1 FTime1 Dist1 x TJR RS1 TV1 Pick NagRat WNagRat 5 INNOVATOR 1.0 E 92 130.0 88.0 2 0.1 63.0 1,210.0 1.5 -2.0 99.0 7.0 113.6 111 64 4 PERFECT MAGIC 5.0 E/P 92 118.7 82.0 1 2.0 64.0 1,210.0 1.2 -0.6 94.0 9.0 107.1 98 62 3 MY WIFE IS RIGHT 20.0 P 92 115.4 73.0 1 3.2 59.0 1,100.0 0.3 0.1 89.0 6.0 94.2 82 47 6 KALE'S ANGEL 2.5 E/P 92 124.9 72.0 11 5.8 97.4 1,760.0 1.1 -1.0 72.0 12.0 92.2 68 56 1 TEXAS CREED 20.0 E 92 114.4 74.0 2 0.5 64.9 1,210.0 0.4 -2.0 88.0 11.0 88.1 73 23 2 THREE ECHOES 4.0 P 92 121.3 69.0 6 7.2 85.2 1,540.0 1.3 -0.7 79.0 13.0 88.0 48 52 RACE 10 Oaklawn Park Purse: 55000 Distance: 2090 Type: R AgeSex: BUN RCond: DRENTRIES 10TH OPX DECEMBER 6 9.5F L55000 0 BUN 1 3/16 MILES DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP STARTER ALLOWANCE PURSE $55000 (04:40) (12) PGM HorseName ML RS SPR PPR SR1 Finish1 Beat1 FTime1 Dist1 x TJR RS1 TV1 Pick NagRat WNagRat 8 TRUCULENT 2.5 P 89 128.3 85.0 1 0.1 113.4 1,980.0 2.4 -1.1 75.0 23.0 110.9 76 84 11 BRIGHT SPARK 3.0 S 89 121.8 86.0 1 11.5 101.2 1,830.0 0.9 -0.5 92.0 10.0 102.6 90 45 6 EXECUTIVE ACTION 8.0 E 89 124.5 80.0 1 6.8 106.8 1,870.0 0.6 0.0 93.0 10.0 102.1 80 57 5 INDIAN GULCH 4.0 S 89 127.4 86.0 5 7.0 104.3 1,870.0 1.9 1.2 78.0 17.0 102.0 75 50 4 GREATHEART 5.0 P 89 121.1 84.0 3 4.8 98.2 1,760.0 0.7 -0.6 88.0 7.0 98.4 81 54 10 CANDY FOR CARMEL 20.0 S 89 109.0 76.0 3 1.8 103.1 1,870.0 0.8 0.0 86.0 14.0 97.6 81 52 1 BIG PAPER 15.0 P 89 118.6 79.0 5 6.0 113.4 1,980.0 1.4 5.0 69.0 23.0 94.8 67 30 9 C F V BULLET 20.0 E/P 89 122.8 78.0 1 2.0 100.9 1,760.0 1.0 -2.0 89.0 10.0 93.3 49 64 2 RIGHT TONE 20.0 S 89 115.6 71.0 4 5.2 107.7 1,870.0 0.9 0.8 71.0 24.0 93.3 58 52 3 COUNT FROST 20.0 E/P 89 117.2 83.0 3 1.0 105.3 1,830.0 0.5 0.0 79.0 24.0 91.6 53 29 7 CANADIAN PHAROAH 20.0 S 89 115.3 80.0 3 5.5 101.4 1,760.0 0.6 -1.4 66.0 35.0 90.7 35 45 12 WARTIME HERO 15.0 P 89 116.2 75.0 5 12.5 103.4 1,830.0 0.4 -2.0 79.0 12.0 85.4 57 37
Monday, February 19, 2024
Saturday, November 3, 2018
2018 Breeder's Cup Saturday Pick Six
Running behind, didn't want to past post. Had a nice 7-1 winner Stormy Liberal.
Here's the rest of BC today:
RACE 6 Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade I) POST TIME - 2:04 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L RAT
4 4 Paved (KY) 3/F J Rosario M W McCarthy 20/1 126
7 7 Smart Choice (ARG) 5/M F Prat T A Pletcher 30/1 116
11 11 Mom's On Strike (FL) 5/M A Beschizza J Sharp 20/1 106
8 8 Fuhriously Kissed (KY) 5/M T Gaffalione A T Quartarolo 30/1 104
1 1 Fourstar Crook (NY) 6/M I Ortiz, Jr. C C Brown 5/1 102
9 9 A Raving Beauty (GER) 5/M J Castellano C C Brown 10/1 101
12 12 Santa Monica (GB) 5/M J L Ortiz C C Brown 15/1 101
3 3 Wild Illusion (GB) 3/F W T Buick C Appleby 7/2 94
10 10 Magic Wand (IRE) 3/F R L Moore A P O'Brien 5/1 93
13 13 Athena (IRE) 3/F W Lordan A P O'Brien 15/1 89
6 6 Sistercharlie (IRE) 4/F J R Velazquez C C Brown 3/1 79
14 14 Eziyra (IRE) 4/F L Dettori D K Weld 15/1 79
2 2 Thais (FR) 4/F M Franco C C Brown 20/1 76
5 5 Princess Yaiza (IRE) 3/F A Atzeni G Cromwell 30/1 38
RACE 7 TwinSpires Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade I) POST TIME - 2:46 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L RAT
5 5 Imperial Hint (FL) 5/H J Castellano L Carvajal, Jr. 9/5 133
1 1 Whitmore (KY) 5/G R Santana, Jr. R Moquett 6/1 128
2 2 Promises Fulfilled (KY) 3/C L Saez D L Romans 6/1 128
8 8 Limousine Liberal (KY) 6/G J L Ortiz B Colebrook 6/1 127
9 9 Roy H (KY) 6/G P Lopez P Miller 5/2 121
4 4 Warrior's Club (KY) 4/C L Contreras D W Lukas 15/1 119
7 7 Distinctive B (FL) 7/G D Van Dyke P Miller 12/1 114
3 3 B Squared (CA) 4/C M Gutierrez D F O'Neill 20/1 106
6 6 Always Sunshine (FL) 6/H F Pennington E T Allard 20/1 93
RACE 8 Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade I) POST TIME - 3:36 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L RAT
5 5 Oscar Performance (KY) 4/C J L Ortiz B A Lynch 6/1 141
15 15 Divisidero (KY) 6/H J Toledo K Rubley 30/1 135
10 10 Catapult (KY) 5/H D Van Dyke J W Sadler 6/1 132
1 1 One Master (GB) 4/F J Doyle W J Haggas 12/1 127
13 13 Gustav Klimt (IRE) 3/C R L Moore A P O'Brien 10/1 124
12 12 Analyze It (KY) 3/C I Ortiz, Jr. C C Brown 6/1 120
2 2 Next Shares (KY) 5/G T Gaffalione R Baltas 10/1 109
14 14 Mustashry (GB) 5/G W T Buick S R Stoute 15/1 108
7 7 Expert Eye (GB) 3/C L Dettori S R Stoute 8/1 104
3 3 Happily (IRE) 3/F W Lordan A P O'Brien 15/1 98
6 6 Almanaar (GB) 6/G J Rosario C C Brown 12/1 90
16 16 Clemmie (IRE) 3/F A Atzeni A P O'Brien 30/1 83
8 8 I Can Fly (GB) 3/F J P Spencer A P O'Brien 10/1 71
11 11 Lightning Spear (GB) 7/H O Murphy D Simcock 20/1 59
4 4 Polydream (IRE) 3/F M H Guyon F Head 5/1 SCR
9 9 Hunt (IRE) 6/G F Prat P D'Amato 30/1 SCR
RACE 9 Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade I) POST TIME - 4:16 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L RAT
9 9 Wow Cat (CHI) 4/F J L Ortiz C C Brown 8/1 128
6 6 Verve's Tale (KY) 5/M B J Hernandez, Jr. B Tagg 30/1 122
10 10 Blue Prize (ARG) 5/M J Bravo I Correas, IV 6/1 113
1 1 Champagne Problems (KY) 4/F C H Borel I R Wilkes 12/1 92
8 8 Vale Dori (ARG) 6/M J Talamo B Baffert 12/1 91
3 3 La Force (GER) 4/F D Van Dyke P Gallagher 20/1 90
2 2 Abel Tasman (KY) 4/F M E Smith B Baffert 7/2 74
4 4 Mopotism (KY) 4/F M Gutierrez D F O'Neill 30/1 71
7 7 Midnight Bisou (KY) 3/F J R Velazquez S M Asmussen 6/1 63
11 11 Monomoy Girl (KY) 3/F F Geroux B H Cox 2/1 63
5 5 Wonder Gadot (ON) 3/F I Ortiz, Jr. M E Casse 15/1 46
RACE 10 Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade I) POST TIME - 4:56 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L RAT
8 8 Liam the Charmer (KY) 5/G T Gaffalione M W McCarthy 30/1 134
7 7 Glorious Empire (IRE) 7/G J R Leparoux J L Lawrence, II 12/1 132
10 10 Hi Happy (ARG) 6/H L Saez T A Pletcher 20/1 113
3 3 Channel Maker (ON) 4/G J L Ortiz W I Mott 12/1 110
4 4 Robert Bruce (CHI) 4/C I Ortiz, Jr. C C Brown 10/1 105
5 5 Magical (IRE) 3/F R L Moore A P O'Brien 10/1 103
2 2 Enable (GB) 4/F L Dettori J H Gosden 1/1 100
11 11 Sadler's Joy (KY) 5/H J Castellano T Albertrani 30/1 99
12 12 Waldgeist (GB) 4/C P Boudot A Fabre 9/2 98
1 1 Talismanic (GB) 5/H M Barzalona A Fabre 12/1 87
13 13 Hunting Horn (IRE) 3/C W Lordan A P O'Brien 30/1 86
6 6 Arklow (KY) 4/C F Geroux B H Cox 30/1 77
9 9 Quarteto de Cordas (BRZ) 4/C B J Hernandez, Jr. I R Wilkes 30/1 75
RACE 11 Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade I) POST TIME - 5:44 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L RAT
1 1 Thunder Snow (IRE) 4/C C Soumillon S bin Suroor 12/1 138
13 13 Discreet Lover (FL) 5/H M Franco U St. Lewis 20/1 138
9 9 Mendelssohn (KY) 3/C R L Moore A P O'Brien 12/1 135
3 3 Catholic Boy (KY) 3/R J Castellano J Thomas 8/1 128
11 11 Mind Your Biscuits (NY) 5/H T Gaffalione C Summers 6/1 127
10 10 Yoshida (JPN) 4/C J L Ortiz W I Mott 10/1 122
4 4 Gunnevera (KY) 4/C I Ortiz, Jr. A Sano 20/1 119
14 14 Accelerate (KY) 5/H J Rosario J W Sadler 5/2 105
7 7 West Coast (KY) 4/C J R Velazquez B Baffert 5/1 100
5 5 Lone Sailor (KY) 3/C J Graham T M Amoss 30/1 92
8 8 Pavel (KY) 4/C M Gutierrez D F O'Neill 20/1 90
2 2 Roaring Lion (KY) 3/C O Murphy J H Gosden 20/1 71
6 6 McKinzie (KY) 3/C M E Smith B Baffert 6/1 69
12 12 Axelrod (FL) 3/C J Bravo M W McCarthy 30/1 66
Friday, November 2, 2018
Breeder's Cup Friday 2018
RACE 4 - POST TIME - 2:36 PM Street Sense S.
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L NAG
3 3 Trophy Chaser (KY) 2/C L Reyes J C Avila 3/1 114
5 5 Moonster (KY) 2/C R Albarado D L Romans 8/1 77x,106
2 2 Improbable (KY) 2/C D Van Dyke B Baffert 5/2 102
7 7 Manny Wah (KY) 2/C J R Velazquez W M Catalano 6/1 98
1 1 Distant Shore (MD) 2/C C J Lanerie T M Amoss 10/1 84
6 6 Reward the Miracle (FL) 2/G J Journet K W Marshall 15/1 79
9 9 Marquee Prince (KY) 2/C B J Hernandez, Jr. B H Cox 6/1 70
8 8 Louder Than Bombs (KY) 2/C J Sanchez D Fawkes 8/1 62
4 4 Unionizer (FL) 2/C J L Ortiz W I Mott 8/1 X,57
RACE 5 - POST TIME - 3:21 PM Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L NAG
4 4 Stillwater Cove (KY) 2/F I Ortiz, Jr. W A Ward 20/1 128
2 2 Soldier's Call (GB) 2/C O Murphy A Watson 9/2 112
11 11 Queen of Bermuda (IRE) 2/F F Prat W J Haggas 20/1 111
10 10 So Perfect (KY) 2/F W Lordan A P O'Brien 12/1 106
5 5 Bulletin (KY) 2/C J Castellano T A Pletcher 10/1 92
1 1 Strike Silver (KY) 2/C J R Leparoux M E Casse 4/1 83
8 8 Sergei Prokofiev (ON) 2/C R L Moore A P O'Brien 6/1 83
9 9 Chelsea Cloisters (KY) 2/F T Gaffalione W A Ward 8/1 82
13 13 Big Drink of Water (FL) 2/G J Valdivia, Jr. L Rivelli 30/1 80
3 3 Well Done Fox (GB) 2/C W T Buick R Hannon 12/1 79
6 6 Moonlight Romance (KY) 2/F J L Ortiz W A Ward 12/1 74
12 12 Pocket Dynamo (KY) 2/C J Rosario R Cowell 20/1 68
7 7 Shang Shang Shang (FL) 2/F J R Velazquez W A Ward 5/1 SCR
RACE 6 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade I) POST TIME - 4:00 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L NAG
5 5 La Pelosa (IRE) 2/F W T Buick C Appleby 15/1 135
13 13 My Gal Betty (KY) 2/F J Castellano R L Attfield 20/1 133
6 6 Newspaperofrecord (IRE) 2/F I Ortiz, Jr. C C Brown 2/1 121
9 9 Varenka (KY) 2/F J L Ortiz H G Motion 20/1 110
2 2 The Mackem Bullet (IRE) 2/F O Murphy B Ellison 15/1 107
7 7 Stellar Agent (KY) 2/F M Franco J R Abreu 30/1 107
11 11 Lady Prancealot (IRE) 2/F J Talamo R Baltas 30/1 106
12 12 Summering (FL) 2/F D Van Dyke T F Proctor 15/1 103
1 1 Concrete Rose (KY) 2/F J Lezcano G R Arnold, II 6/1 92
8 8 Belle Laura (KY) 2/F J R Leparoux N W Casse 20/1 87
10 10 Pakhet (KY) 2/F J R Velazquez T A Pletcher 12/1 87
4 4 Just Wonderful (KY) 2/F R L Moore A P O'Brien 6/1 79
3 3 Lily's Candle (FR) 2/F P Boudot F Vermeulen 8/1 78
14 14 East (GB) 2/F J P Spencer K A Ryan 20/1 39
RACE 7 Tito's Vodka Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade I) POST TIME - 4:40 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L NAG
7 7 Jaywalk (KY) 2/F J Rosario J C Servis 7/2 132
5 5 Cassies Dreamer (KY) 2/F M Franco B Tagg 30/1 120
4 4 Restless Rider (KY) 2/F B J Hernandez, Jr. K G McPeek 9/2 104
8 8 Sippican Harbor (KY) 2/F I Ortiz, Jr. G C Contessa 12/1 103
1 1 Reflect (KY) 2/F J L Ortiz J K Desormeaux 15/1 100
2 2 Serengeti Empress (KY) 2/F C J Lanerie T M Amoss 7/2 95
10 10 Bellafina (KY) 2/F F Prat S Callaghan 2/1 93
3 3 Vibrance (LA) 2/F J R Velazquez M W McCarthy 10/1 82
9 9 Splashy Kisses (KY) 2/F D Van Dyke D F O'Neill 20/1 76
6 6 Baby Nina (OH) 2/F T Gaffalione A T Quartarolo 30/1 38
RACE 8 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade I) POST TIME - 5:22 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L NAG
11 11 King of Speed (KY) 2/C G L Stevens J Bonde 8/1 116
3 3 Much Better (KY) 2/R D Van Dyke B Baffert 10/1 114
5 5 Line of Duty (IRE) 2/C W T Buick C Appleby 10/1 112
1 1 Arthur Kitt (GB) 2/C R Kingscote T Dascombe 20/1 105
4 4 Forty Under (KY) 2/C M Franco J C Englehart 5/1 100
7 7 Somelikeithotbrown (NY) 2/C J L Ortiz M J Maker 12/1 99
13 13 Marie's Diamond (IRE) 2/C F Geroux M S Johnston 20/1 97
9 9 The Black Album (FR) 2/C M Barzalona J Soubagne 30/1 93
8 8 Opry (KY) 2/C J Castellano T A Pletcher 15/1 90
12 12 Current (KY) 2/C J R Velazquez T A Pletcher 5/1 83
14 14 Anthony Van Dyck (IRE) 2/C R L Moore A P O'Brien 4/1 83
2 2 Uncle Benny (KY) 2/C I Ortiz, Jr. J Servis 15/1 82
10 10 War of Will (KY) 2/C J Rosario M E Casse 12/1 82
6 6 Henley's Joy (KY) 2/C T Gaffalione M J Maker 8/1 77
RACE 9 Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade I) POST TIME - 6:05 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L NAG
6 6 Complexity (KY) 2/C J L Ortiz C C Brown 5/2 130
7 7 Mind Control (KY) 2/C I Ortiz, Jr. G D Sacco 20/1 112
10 10 Knicks Go (MD) 2/C A Jimenez B Colebrook 30/1 104
9 9 Game Winner (KY) 2/C J Rosario B Baffert 8/5 103
2 2 Mr. Money (KY) 2/C G Saez W B Calhoun 30/1 102
13 13 Topper T (IA) 2/C T Gaffalione W I Mott 30/1 98
4 4 Tight Ten (KY) 2/C R Santana, Jr. S M Asmussen 30/1 96
12 12 Gunmetal Gray (KY) 2/C F Prat J Hollendorfer 10/1 96
14 14 Signalman (KY) 2/C B J Hernandez, Jr. K G McPeek 20/1 95
8 8 Standard Deviation (KY) 2/C J Castellano C C Brown 12/1 94
1 1 Dueling (KY) 2/C M Franco J Hollendorfer 20/1 91
5 5 Well Defined (FL) 2/G M E Smith K O'Connell 20/1 90
3 3 Derby Date (KY) 2/C L Contreras D W Lukas 30/1 88
11 11 Code of Honor (KY) 2/C J R Velazquez C R McGaughey III 5/1 SCR
Saturday, June 9, 2018
2018 Belmont Stakes
2018 Belmont Stakes (Nag-O-Calc III points) 1 Justify 125 10 Blended Citizen 125 3 Bravazo 124 7 Tenfold 124 8 Vin Rosso 118 4 Hofburg 108x, 105 2 Free Drop Billy 75x, 107 5 Restoring Hope 100x, 102 6 Gronkowski 93 9 Noble Indy 74x, 85
Thursday, May 5, 2016
Free 2016 Kentucky Derby Formulator Web Past Performaces
2016 Kentucky Derby Past Performaces
Here's the data, take a look. I'll post my thoughts later.
Daily Racing Form data
Free 2016 Kentucky Derby Formulator Web Past PerformacesBrisnet
Brisnet 2016 Derby PP's PDF
Friday, June 5, 2015
2015 Belmont Nag-O-Calc III
Never say never.
I decided to nag back 3 races and came up with this:
Materiality has run second to AP before...
I decided to nag back 3 races and came up with this:
2015 Belmont 1 Mubtaahij 109, 115*, 125* = 110 2 Tale of Verve 93, 79, 65? = 86 3 Madefromlucky 123, 107, 95 = 115 4 Frammento 105x, 105, 70 = 105 5 American Pharoah 103, 122, 121 = 122 6 Frosted 118, 105, 79? = 112 7 Keen Ice 110, 91?, 87? = 101 8 Materiality 111, 106?, 122? = 117 2015 Belmont sorted: 5 American Pharoah 103, 122, 121 = 122 8 Materiality 111, 106?, 122? = 117 3 Madefromlucky 123, 107, 95 = 115 6 Frosted 118, 105, 79? = 112 1 Mubtaahij 109, 115*, 125* = 110 4 Frammento 105x, 105, 70 = 105 7 Keen Ice 110, 91?, 87? = 101 2 Tale of Verve 93, 79, 65? = 86 x = finished 12+ lengths behind * = Rough approximation. About distance, maybe foreign. -10? ? = Educated guess = toss low, average other 2 BTW: I think the track adjustment for GP may be too much. Frosted's 79 was 69 but I bumped it up 10. Fountain of Youth was 146 1/5 for 1 1/16 miles on a fast track. That IS a very slow time...
Materiality has run second to AP before...
2015 Belmont
Brisnet is giving away Belmont past performances:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BelmontStakes15.pdf
I won't be Nag-O-Calcing this race because I know the Preakness was sort of the Freakness. Awful weather and track condition. It was lucky American Pharoah came out alive, much less won.
As I recall, I Nagged the Preakness right after the race and came up with 100 or so. Let's say that is 15% slower than AP is capable of running. The horse was geared down and still won easy.
Consequently, I expect the race to be for second.
If AP wins, the payoffs will all be quite small, but you may be able to profit if you guess the runners up correctly. There were good exacta payouts on both the Derby and Preakness, but AP may be 1/5 here. I don't think a wheel is going to profit this time.
I may drop a few exotics that do not include AP, just on the off-chance the jockey falls off or something. An exotic payout that does not include the favorite should be abnormally large for an eight horse field. The field size will keep it from being monstrous, however. There are only 56 possible exacta combinations, after all.
Good luck to all the horses and YOU, and especially to American Pharoah in his quest to number Triple Crown winners at an even dozen!
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BelmontStakes15.pdf
I won't be Nag-O-Calcing this race because I know the Preakness was sort of the Freakness. Awful weather and track condition. It was lucky American Pharoah came out alive, much less won.
As I recall, I Nagged the Preakness right after the race and came up with 100 or so. Let's say that is 15% slower than AP is capable of running. The horse was geared down and still won easy.
Consequently, I expect the race to be for second.
If AP wins, the payoffs will all be quite small, but you may be able to profit if you guess the runners up correctly. There were good exacta payouts on both the Derby and Preakness, but AP may be 1/5 here. I don't think a wheel is going to profit this time.
I may drop a few exotics that do not include AP, just on the off-chance the jockey falls off or something. An exotic payout that does not include the favorite should be abnormally large for an eight horse field. The field size will keep it from being monstrous, however. There are only 56 possible exacta combinations, after all.
Good luck to all the horses and YOU, and especially to American Pharoah in his quest to number Triple Crown winners at an even dozen!
Friday, May 15, 2015
Nag-O-Calcing the 2015 Preakness
Just the last race. I'm lazy.
1 American Pharoah,122
2 Dortmund,118
3 Mr. Z,101x,107
4 Danzig Moon,113
5 Tale of Verve,79
6 Bodhisattva,86
7 Divining Rod,113
8 Firing Line,121
Nag-O-Calc III mimics the pundits.
1 American Pharoah,122
8 Firing Line,121
2 Dortmund,118
4 Danzig Moon,113
7 Divining Rod,113
3 Mr. Z,101x,107
6 Bodhisattva,86
5 Tale of Verve,79
As I recall, I "nagged" 121 for AP going into the Derby. He went wide, got brushed and still ran 122.
From outside bad post position to inside bad, it looks like this horse will have to earn his shot at history.
1 American Pharoah,122
2 Dortmund,118
3 Mr. Z,101x,107
4 Danzig Moon,113
5 Tale of Verve,79
6 Bodhisattva,86
7 Divining Rod,113
8 Firing Line,121
Nag-O-Calc III mimics the pundits.
1 American Pharoah,122
8 Firing Line,121
2 Dortmund,118
4 Danzig Moon,113
7 Divining Rod,113
3 Mr. Z,101x,107
6 Bodhisattva,86
5 Tale of Verve,79
As I recall, I "nagged" 121 for AP going into the Derby. He went wide, got brushed and still ran 122.
From outside bad post position to inside bad, it looks like this horse will have to earn his shot at history.
Friday, June 6, 2014
Speed May Steal Belmont
Well, I got hold of some past performances for the 2014 Belmont Stakes and I have to say the Peter Pan looks impressive 1:48 1/5 in the slop at Belmont for Tonalist. That's a Nag-O-Calc 143. Would be 123 on a fast track and that is still fast enough to win.
Could be my tools need updating, but the top 3 horses in the Peter Pan look to make an impact in the Belmont. Long odds, too.
I'm starting to think the TC is in question. Good luck to California Chrome but I have to bet mostly against the odds. I don't know any other way to play.
Here's my scratchings:
2014 Belmont
So, my numbers for the Peter Pan Stakes come back huge.
Tonalist 143 (123 if fast track. Still the best SR.)
Commissioner
Matterhorn
Wicked Strong
California Chrome
Matusak
6 * 5 = $30 exacta?
Tonalist sprinted to 46.4 which should give him the lead vs 47.2 others.
Could be a lot of speed up front. If track is tiring...
On the other hand, if track is playing speedy. Tonalist might go WTW.
Six horse exacta box = $30
Tonalist / all = $10
Wicked Strong / all = $10
California Chrome = $1 Superfecta: 1 / 2,3,4 / 2,3,4,5 / 2,3,4,5,6 = $27
(NOTE: These are not program numbers, these are "choices." Your choices for 2nd,3rd,4th etc.)
$77 leaves $7
$2 WIN Commissioner, Matterhorn
$3 WIN Matuzak
Could be my tools need updating, but the top 3 horses in the Peter Pan look to make an impact in the Belmont. Long odds, too.
I'm starting to think the TC is in question. Good luck to California Chrome but I have to bet mostly against the odds. I don't know any other way to play.
Here's my scratchings:
2014 Belmont
So, my numbers for the Peter Pan Stakes come back huge.
Tonalist 143 (123 if fast track. Still the best SR.)
Commissioner
Matterhorn
Wicked Strong
California Chrome
Matusak
6 * 5 = $30 exacta?
Tonalist sprinted to 46.4 which should give him the lead vs 47.2 others.
Could be a lot of speed up front. If track is tiring...
On the other hand, if track is playing speedy. Tonalist might go WTW.
Six horse exacta box = $30
Tonalist / all = $10
Wicked Strong / all = $10
California Chrome = $1 Superfecta: 1 / 2,3,4 / 2,3,4,5 / 2,3,4,5,6 = $27
(NOTE: These are not program numbers, these are "choices." Your choices for 2nd,3rd,4th etc.)
$77 leaves $7
$2 WIN Commissioner, Matterhorn
$3 WIN Matuzak
Thursday, June 5, 2014
Belmont Stakes 2014
A work in progress...
Victor Espinoza has been here before. One win away from the elusive Triple Crown.
War Emblem stumbled out of the gate and tired from the mile and a half effort. The horse was one-dimensional Espinoza would say later. War Emblem was good, but this horse is better.
The latest horse to threaten the Triple is California Chrome. Victor has never lost a race on this horse. Ever.
California Chrome and Victor Espinoza have won six huge races in a row, convincingly. Never close. Ever.
The trouble of course, is the horse is 3/5. Now if you can get 3/2 on 3/5, that's OK but this is 3/5, maybe less. Probably less. Probably 1/5.
The next trouble is that it has rained and the track will likely be tiring for any horse near the lead.
Either someone goes wire to wire or someone grinds one out. That's the usual Belmont. Usually closers.
Consider the speed if it can get away, but right now I'm thinking about grinders.
There is one grinder who loves this track and that is Wicked Strong. This horse will just grind and grind and grind and grind and grind and grind and grind.
And then he will grind some more.
He's a grinder. And he's my top contender right now for Belmont 2014. Wicked Strong.
Victor Espinoza has been here before. One win away from the elusive Triple Crown.
War Emblem stumbled out of the gate and tired from the mile and a half effort. The horse was one-dimensional Espinoza would say later. War Emblem was good, but this horse is better.
The latest horse to threaten the Triple is California Chrome. Victor has never lost a race on this horse. Ever.
California Chrome and Victor Espinoza have won six huge races in a row, convincingly. Never close. Ever.
The trouble of course, is the horse is 3/5. Now if you can get 3/2 on 3/5, that's OK but this is 3/5, maybe less. Probably less. Probably 1/5.
The next trouble is that it has rained and the track will likely be tiring for any horse near the lead.
Either someone goes wire to wire or someone grinds one out. That's the usual Belmont. Usually closers.
Consider the speed if it can get away, but right now I'm thinking about grinders.
There is one grinder who loves this track and that is Wicked Strong. This horse will just grind and grind and grind and grind and grind and grind and grind.
And then he will grind some more.
He's a grinder. And he's my top contender right now for Belmont 2014. Wicked Strong.
Friday, May 18, 2012
Got a Hunch bet a Bunch
I've been under the weather for the better part of a month, so this has been a bizarre Classic series for me.
I was pretty excited about Dullahan's chances in the Preakness, but the owners decided not to run him.
Everybody seems enamored with Bodemeister and for good reason. There doesn't seem to be much speed to go with him and Maryland favors speed. The morning line is 8/5. I don't like 8/5.
I like Dale Romans. He was supposed to take Dullahan here, but instead finds himself bringing Cozzetti, a horse I think is much better than his 30-1 morning line. Bodemeister annihilated Cozzetti by 9 3/4 lengths in the Arkansas Derby. However, Cozzetti is well-rested while the favorite has had 3 races in 5 weeks.
At 30-1, you don't have to risk much and won't be terribly disappointed if the horse runs up the track.
So, there it is. Just a hunch. If Bodemeister folds the exotics should light the tote board. He ain't likely to fold, given the track and his speed, but you just never know in this game. I'm tossing him (again) and going with Dale Romans (again.)
Good luck to all!
I was pretty excited about Dullahan's chances in the Preakness, but the owners decided not to run him.
Everybody seems enamored with Bodemeister and for good reason. There doesn't seem to be much speed to go with him and Maryland favors speed. The morning line is 8/5. I don't like 8/5.
I like Dale Romans. He was supposed to take Dullahan here, but instead finds himself bringing Cozzetti, a horse I think is much better than his 30-1 morning line. Bodemeister annihilated Cozzetti by 9 3/4 lengths in the Arkansas Derby. However, Cozzetti is well-rested while the favorite has had 3 races in 5 weeks.
At 30-1, you don't have to risk much and won't be terribly disappointed if the horse runs up the track.
So, there it is. Just a hunch. If Bodemeister folds the exotics should light the tote board. He ain't likely to fold, given the track and his speed, but you just never know in this game. I'm tossing him (again) and going with Dale Romans (again.)
Good luck to all!
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