BC 2011 Pick Six

Friday's track started out muddy but formful, then quickly dried into pari-mutuel chaos over a “good” track. If it doesn't rain, things should be fast by the start of the Pick Six.

Here is a link to Friday's results:

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/CD110411USA.pdf

Here is link that should work a few hours after the last race on Saturday:

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/CD110511USA.pdf

You can check the results of our selections with the last link.
Pondering the Pick Six

I posted the betting strategy last night, so tonight it's all about horses.

The betting structure calls for 2 “singletons” per play. There are many ways to approach a single, but usually people just want a winner. A lead pipe cinch reduces the pick six to a pick five.

On the other hand, sometimes it's best to reduce a confusing race to a single horse so you can focus on obvious contenders elsewhere. If, somehow, your 30-1 shot wins the 5th leg, you may be the only person alive to multiple horses in the last race. It is not an obvious strategy, but the horses don't really know what there odds are, anyway.

My base handicapping theory hasn't changed a lot over the years. I like horses that have run recently, have good speed, are entered competitively and have competent connections. Speed and class.

I don't focus so much on class, I let the trainers handle that. If they don't think the horse fits they won't enter it (most of the time.) You do need to watch for races as workouts, though.

Glancing through Friday's results spawned a quick theory and here's picks three deep:

6th
8 Regally Ready 3 117
6 California Flag 15 113
10 Havelock 4.5 113

7th
3 Tapizar 20 112
6 Irrefutable 12 112
1 The Factor 3.5 102

8th
9 Midday (GB) 4 ?
8 Brilliant Speed 20 104
Most horses stale.

9th
10 Union Rags 2 95
2 Dullahan 8 94
6 Prospective 30 94

10th
7 Jeranimo 20 116
4 Mr. Commons 20 115
12 Compliance Officer 30 114

11th
5 So You Think (NZ) 5 ?
11 Headache 30 108

The eighth and eleventh call out to be singled using this theory. On the other hand, they both have very nice odds horses that qualify along with the singletons. Take a look at the past performances to see why I prefer “invaders” for these races.

 8  3  9  10  7  5
 6  6  2   4
10  1  6  12

That looks reasonable enough to be the first ticket. Sensible horses, not hyped.

Let's make up something else. Class. We like classy horses. Money measures class.

I need something easy because I'm getting drunk. Sorry. Lifetime money sounds good:

6th
14 Chamberlain Bridge 5 1.68M
 6 California Flag 15 1.23M
13 Caracortado 4 0.77M
7th

2 Shackleford 3.5 1.81M
4 Tres Borrachos 30 0.77M
9 Trappe Shot 3 0.64M

8th
9 Midday (GB) 4 3.44M
2 Sarafina (FR) 2.5 2.06M
5 Teaks North 20 1.00M

9th
10 Union Rags 2 0.50M
12 Fort Luden 20 0.33M
7 Creative Cause 3.5 0.32M

10th
1 Goldikova (IRE) 1.4 6.98M
5 Gio Ponte 4 6.05M
9 Court Vision 30 2.67M

11th
5 So You Think (NZ) 5 7.59M
10 Havre De Grace 3 2.20M
12 Uncle Mo 2.5 1.61M

Again, the 11th looks good. The 7th looks pretty good, also. Our two singles.

14   2   9  10  1  5
 6       2  12  5
13       5   7  9

This seems a reasonable turn of events. Can we combine the two?

6th
6 California Flag 15
14 Chamberlain Bridge 5
8 Regally Ready 3

7th
2 Shackleford 3.5
3 Tapizar 20
6 Irrefutable 12

8th
9 Midday (GB) 4
2 Sarafina (FR) 2.5
8 Brilliant Speed 20

9th
10 Union Rags 2
2 Dullahan 8
12 Fort Luden 20

10th
7 Jeranimo 20
1 Goldikova (IRE) 1.4
5 Gio Ponte 4

11th
5 So You Think (NZ) 5
10 Havre De Grace 3
11 Headache 30

So You Think, Union Rags and Midday look strong. I am starting to dig So You Think:

 6   2   9   10   7   5
14   3   2        1
 8   6   8        5

So far, every card has ended with a 5 (So You Think.) Frankly, that could be a mistake.

Anyway, the last card will be entirely gut feelings:

6th
6 California Flag 15
7 Hoofit (NZ) 15
10 Havelock 4.5

7th
2 Shackleford 3.5

8th
9 Midday (GB) 4
6 Await The Dawn 3.5
7 Sea Moon (GB) 4

9th
10 Union Rags 2

10th
1 Goldikova (IRE) 1.4
9 Court Vision 30
10 Sidney's Candy 15

11th
12 Uncle Mo 2.5

Oops. Three singles ain't right. Which to flesh out? Well, don't want to miss the horse we singled three times, do we? Flesh 11th.

11th
12 Uncle Mo 2.5
5 So You Think (NZ) 5
8 Game On Dude 10

 6   2   9    10     1     12 
 7       6           9      5
10       7          10      8

Pease note that each of the tickets described (as directly above) costs $162. We don't have those tickets. We will have some of those tickets. Please reread how tickets will be constructed for $20.

Let's just say, this is pretty close. If “weird” horses not listed here start winning, we're dead anyway.

I will try to get online before I leave, but this may be it before I go. Good luck!