Monday, February 19, 2024
Saturday, November 3, 2018
2018 Breeder's Cup Saturday Pick Six
Running behind, didn't want to past post. Had a nice 7-1 winner Stormy Liberal.
Here's the rest of BC today:
RACE 6 Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade I) POST TIME - 2:04 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L RAT
4 4 Paved (KY) 3/F J Rosario M W McCarthy 20/1 126
7 7 Smart Choice (ARG) 5/M F Prat T A Pletcher 30/1 116
11 11 Mom's On Strike (FL) 5/M A Beschizza J Sharp 20/1 106
8 8 Fuhriously Kissed (KY) 5/M T Gaffalione A T Quartarolo 30/1 104
1 1 Fourstar Crook (NY) 6/M I Ortiz, Jr. C C Brown 5/1 102
9 9 A Raving Beauty (GER) 5/M J Castellano C C Brown 10/1 101
12 12 Santa Monica (GB) 5/M J L Ortiz C C Brown 15/1 101
3 3 Wild Illusion (GB) 3/F W T Buick C Appleby 7/2 94
10 10 Magic Wand (IRE) 3/F R L Moore A P O'Brien 5/1 93
13 13 Athena (IRE) 3/F W Lordan A P O'Brien 15/1 89
6 6 Sistercharlie (IRE) 4/F J R Velazquez C C Brown 3/1 79
14 14 Eziyra (IRE) 4/F L Dettori D K Weld 15/1 79
2 2 Thais (FR) 4/F M Franco C C Brown 20/1 76
5 5 Princess Yaiza (IRE) 3/F A Atzeni G Cromwell 30/1 38
RACE 7 TwinSpires Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade I) POST TIME - 2:46 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L RAT
5 5 Imperial Hint (FL) 5/H J Castellano L Carvajal, Jr. 9/5 133
1 1 Whitmore (KY) 5/G R Santana, Jr. R Moquett 6/1 128
2 2 Promises Fulfilled (KY) 3/C L Saez D L Romans 6/1 128
8 8 Limousine Liberal (KY) 6/G J L Ortiz B Colebrook 6/1 127
9 9 Roy H (KY) 6/G P Lopez P Miller 5/2 121
4 4 Warrior's Club (KY) 4/C L Contreras D W Lukas 15/1 119
7 7 Distinctive B (FL) 7/G D Van Dyke P Miller 12/1 114
3 3 B Squared (CA) 4/C M Gutierrez D F O'Neill 20/1 106
6 6 Always Sunshine (FL) 6/H F Pennington E T Allard 20/1 93
RACE 8 Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade I) POST TIME - 3:36 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L RAT
5 5 Oscar Performance (KY) 4/C J L Ortiz B A Lynch 6/1 141
15 15 Divisidero (KY) 6/H J Toledo K Rubley 30/1 135
10 10 Catapult (KY) 5/H D Van Dyke J W Sadler 6/1 132
1 1 One Master (GB) 4/F J Doyle W J Haggas 12/1 127
13 13 Gustav Klimt (IRE) 3/C R L Moore A P O'Brien 10/1 124
12 12 Analyze It (KY) 3/C I Ortiz, Jr. C C Brown 6/1 120
2 2 Next Shares (KY) 5/G T Gaffalione R Baltas 10/1 109
14 14 Mustashry (GB) 5/G W T Buick S R Stoute 15/1 108
7 7 Expert Eye (GB) 3/C L Dettori S R Stoute 8/1 104
3 3 Happily (IRE) 3/F W Lordan A P O'Brien 15/1 98
6 6 Almanaar (GB) 6/G J Rosario C C Brown 12/1 90
16 16 Clemmie (IRE) 3/F A Atzeni A P O'Brien 30/1 83
8 8 I Can Fly (GB) 3/F J P Spencer A P O'Brien 10/1 71
11 11 Lightning Spear (GB) 7/H O Murphy D Simcock 20/1 59
4 4 Polydream (IRE) 3/F M H Guyon F Head 5/1 SCR
9 9 Hunt (IRE) 6/G F Prat P D'Amato 30/1 SCR
RACE 9 Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade I) POST TIME - 4:16 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L RAT
9 9 Wow Cat (CHI) 4/F J L Ortiz C C Brown 8/1 128
6 6 Verve's Tale (KY) 5/M B J Hernandez, Jr. B Tagg 30/1 122
10 10 Blue Prize (ARG) 5/M J Bravo I Correas, IV 6/1 113
1 1 Champagne Problems (KY) 4/F C H Borel I R Wilkes 12/1 92
8 8 Vale Dori (ARG) 6/M J Talamo B Baffert 12/1 91
3 3 La Force (GER) 4/F D Van Dyke P Gallagher 20/1 90
2 2 Abel Tasman (KY) 4/F M E Smith B Baffert 7/2 74
4 4 Mopotism (KY) 4/F M Gutierrez D F O'Neill 30/1 71
7 7 Midnight Bisou (KY) 3/F J R Velazquez S M Asmussen 6/1 63
11 11 Monomoy Girl (KY) 3/F F Geroux B H Cox 2/1 63
5 5 Wonder Gadot (ON) 3/F I Ortiz, Jr. M E Casse 15/1 46
RACE 10 Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade I) POST TIME - 4:56 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L RAT
8 8 Liam the Charmer (KY) 5/G T Gaffalione M W McCarthy 30/1 134
7 7 Glorious Empire (IRE) 7/G J R Leparoux J L Lawrence, II 12/1 132
10 10 Hi Happy (ARG) 6/H L Saez T A Pletcher 20/1 113
3 3 Channel Maker (ON) 4/G J L Ortiz W I Mott 12/1 110
4 4 Robert Bruce (CHI) 4/C I Ortiz, Jr. C C Brown 10/1 105
5 5 Magical (IRE) 3/F R L Moore A P O'Brien 10/1 103
2 2 Enable (GB) 4/F L Dettori J H Gosden 1/1 100
11 11 Sadler's Joy (KY) 5/H J Castellano T Albertrani 30/1 99
12 12 Waldgeist (GB) 4/C P Boudot A Fabre 9/2 98
1 1 Talismanic (GB) 5/H M Barzalona A Fabre 12/1 87
13 13 Hunting Horn (IRE) 3/C W Lordan A P O'Brien 30/1 86
6 6 Arklow (KY) 4/C F Geroux B H Cox 30/1 77
9 9 Quarteto de Cordas (BRZ) 4/C B J Hernandez, Jr. I R Wilkes 30/1 75
RACE 11 Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade I) POST TIME - 5:44 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L RAT
1 1 Thunder Snow (IRE) 4/C C Soumillon S bin Suroor 12/1 138
13 13 Discreet Lover (FL) 5/H M Franco U St. Lewis 20/1 138
9 9 Mendelssohn (KY) 3/C R L Moore A P O'Brien 12/1 135
3 3 Catholic Boy (KY) 3/R J Castellano J Thomas 8/1 128
11 11 Mind Your Biscuits (NY) 5/H T Gaffalione C Summers 6/1 127
10 10 Yoshida (JPN) 4/C J L Ortiz W I Mott 10/1 122
4 4 Gunnevera (KY) 4/C I Ortiz, Jr. A Sano 20/1 119
14 14 Accelerate (KY) 5/H J Rosario J W Sadler 5/2 105
7 7 West Coast (KY) 4/C J R Velazquez B Baffert 5/1 100
5 5 Lone Sailor (KY) 3/C J Graham T M Amoss 30/1 92
8 8 Pavel (KY) 4/C M Gutierrez D F O'Neill 20/1 90
2 2 Roaring Lion (KY) 3/C O Murphy J H Gosden 20/1 71
6 6 McKinzie (KY) 3/C M E Smith B Baffert 6/1 69
12 12 Axelrod (FL) 3/C J Bravo M W McCarthy 30/1 66
Friday, November 2, 2018
Breeder's Cup Friday 2018
RACE 4 - POST TIME - 2:36 PM Street Sense S.
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L NAG
3 3 Trophy Chaser (KY) 2/C L Reyes J C Avila 3/1 114
5 5 Moonster (KY) 2/C R Albarado D L Romans 8/1 77x,106
2 2 Improbable (KY) 2/C D Van Dyke B Baffert 5/2 102
7 7 Manny Wah (KY) 2/C J R Velazquez W M Catalano 6/1 98
1 1 Distant Shore (MD) 2/C C J Lanerie T M Amoss 10/1 84
6 6 Reward the Miracle (FL) 2/G J Journet K W Marshall 15/1 79
9 9 Marquee Prince (KY) 2/C B J Hernandez, Jr. B H Cox 6/1 70
8 8 Louder Than Bombs (KY) 2/C J Sanchez D Fawkes 8/1 62
4 4 Unionizer (FL) 2/C J L Ortiz W I Mott 8/1 X,57
RACE 5 - POST TIME - 3:21 PM Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L NAG
4 4 Stillwater Cove (KY) 2/F I Ortiz, Jr. W A Ward 20/1 128
2 2 Soldier's Call (GB) 2/C O Murphy A Watson 9/2 112
11 11 Queen of Bermuda (IRE) 2/F F Prat W J Haggas 20/1 111
10 10 So Perfect (KY) 2/F W Lordan A P O'Brien 12/1 106
5 5 Bulletin (KY) 2/C J Castellano T A Pletcher 10/1 92
1 1 Strike Silver (KY) 2/C J R Leparoux M E Casse 4/1 83
8 8 Sergei Prokofiev (ON) 2/C R L Moore A P O'Brien 6/1 83
9 9 Chelsea Cloisters (KY) 2/F T Gaffalione W A Ward 8/1 82
13 13 Big Drink of Water (FL) 2/G J Valdivia, Jr. L Rivelli 30/1 80
3 3 Well Done Fox (GB) 2/C W T Buick R Hannon 12/1 79
6 6 Moonlight Romance (KY) 2/F J L Ortiz W A Ward 12/1 74
12 12 Pocket Dynamo (KY) 2/C J Rosario R Cowell 20/1 68
7 7 Shang Shang Shang (FL) 2/F J R Velazquez W A Ward 5/1 SCR
RACE 6 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade I) POST TIME - 4:00 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L NAG
5 5 La Pelosa (IRE) 2/F W T Buick C Appleby 15/1 135
13 13 My Gal Betty (KY) 2/F J Castellano R L Attfield 20/1 133
6 6 Newspaperofrecord (IRE) 2/F I Ortiz, Jr. C C Brown 2/1 121
9 9 Varenka (KY) 2/F J L Ortiz H G Motion 20/1 110
2 2 The Mackem Bullet (IRE) 2/F O Murphy B Ellison 15/1 107
7 7 Stellar Agent (KY) 2/F M Franco J R Abreu 30/1 107
11 11 Lady Prancealot (IRE) 2/F J Talamo R Baltas 30/1 106
12 12 Summering (FL) 2/F D Van Dyke T F Proctor 15/1 103
1 1 Concrete Rose (KY) 2/F J Lezcano G R Arnold, II 6/1 92
8 8 Belle Laura (KY) 2/F J R Leparoux N W Casse 20/1 87
10 10 Pakhet (KY) 2/F J R Velazquez T A Pletcher 12/1 87
4 4 Just Wonderful (KY) 2/F R L Moore A P O'Brien 6/1 79
3 3 Lily's Candle (FR) 2/F P Boudot F Vermeulen 8/1 78
14 14 East (GB) 2/F J P Spencer K A Ryan 20/1 39
RACE 7 Tito's Vodka Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade I) POST TIME - 4:40 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L NAG
7 7 Jaywalk (KY) 2/F J Rosario J C Servis 7/2 132
5 5 Cassies Dreamer (KY) 2/F M Franco B Tagg 30/1 120
4 4 Restless Rider (KY) 2/F B J Hernandez, Jr. K G McPeek 9/2 104
8 8 Sippican Harbor (KY) 2/F I Ortiz, Jr. G C Contessa 12/1 103
1 1 Reflect (KY) 2/F J L Ortiz J K Desormeaux 15/1 100
2 2 Serengeti Empress (KY) 2/F C J Lanerie T M Amoss 7/2 95
10 10 Bellafina (KY) 2/F F Prat S Callaghan 2/1 93
3 3 Vibrance (LA) 2/F J R Velazquez M W McCarthy 10/1 82
9 9 Splashy Kisses (KY) 2/F D Van Dyke D F O'Neill 20/1 76
6 6 Baby Nina (OH) 2/F T Gaffalione A T Quartarolo 30/1 38
RACE 8 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade I) POST TIME - 5:22 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L NAG
11 11 King of Speed (KY) 2/C G L Stevens J Bonde 8/1 116
3 3 Much Better (KY) 2/R D Van Dyke B Baffert 10/1 114
5 5 Line of Duty (IRE) 2/C W T Buick C Appleby 10/1 112
1 1 Arthur Kitt (GB) 2/C R Kingscote T Dascombe 20/1 105
4 4 Forty Under (KY) 2/C M Franco J C Englehart 5/1 100
7 7 Somelikeithotbrown (NY) 2/C J L Ortiz M J Maker 12/1 99
13 13 Marie's Diamond (IRE) 2/C F Geroux M S Johnston 20/1 97
9 9 The Black Album (FR) 2/C M Barzalona J Soubagne 30/1 93
8 8 Opry (KY) 2/C J Castellano T A Pletcher 15/1 90
12 12 Current (KY) 2/C J R Velazquez T A Pletcher 5/1 83
14 14 Anthony Van Dyck (IRE) 2/C R L Moore A P O'Brien 4/1 83
2 2 Uncle Benny (KY) 2/C I Ortiz, Jr. J Servis 15/1 82
10 10 War of Will (KY) 2/C J Rosario M E Casse 12/1 82
6 6 Henley's Joy (KY) 2/C T Gaffalione M J Maker 8/1 77
RACE 9 Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade I) POST TIME - 6:05 PM
P# PP Horse A/S Jockey Trainer M/L NAG
6 6 Complexity (KY) 2/C J L Ortiz C C Brown 5/2 130
7 7 Mind Control (KY) 2/C I Ortiz, Jr. G D Sacco 20/1 112
10 10 Knicks Go (MD) 2/C A Jimenez B Colebrook 30/1 104
9 9 Game Winner (KY) 2/C J Rosario B Baffert 8/5 103
2 2 Mr. Money (KY) 2/C G Saez W B Calhoun 30/1 102
13 13 Topper T (IA) 2/C T Gaffalione W I Mott 30/1 98
4 4 Tight Ten (KY) 2/C R Santana, Jr. S M Asmussen 30/1 96
12 12 Gunmetal Gray (KY) 2/C F Prat J Hollendorfer 10/1 96
14 14 Signalman (KY) 2/C B J Hernandez, Jr. K G McPeek 20/1 95
8 8 Standard Deviation (KY) 2/C J Castellano C C Brown 12/1 94
1 1 Dueling (KY) 2/C M Franco J Hollendorfer 20/1 91
5 5 Well Defined (FL) 2/G M E Smith K O'Connell 20/1 90
3 3 Derby Date (KY) 2/C L Contreras D W Lukas 30/1 88
11 11 Code of Honor (KY) 2/C J R Velazquez C R McGaughey III 5/1 SCR
Saturday, June 9, 2018
2018 Belmont Stakes
2018 Belmont Stakes (Nag-O-Calc III points) 1 Justify 125 10 Blended Citizen 125 3 Bravazo 124 7 Tenfold 124 8 Vin Rosso 118 4 Hofburg 108x, 105 2 Free Drop Billy 75x, 107 5 Restoring Hope 100x, 102 6 Gronkowski 93 9 Noble Indy 74x, 85
Thursday, May 5, 2016
Free 2016 Kentucky Derby Formulator Web Past Performaces
2016 Kentucky Derby Past Performaces
Here's the data, take a look. I'll post my thoughts later.
Daily Racing Form data
Free 2016 Kentucky Derby Formulator Web Past PerformacesBrisnet
Brisnet 2016 Derby PP's PDF
Friday, June 5, 2015
2015 Belmont Nag-O-Calc III
Never say never.
I decided to nag back 3 races and came up with this:
Materiality has run second to AP before...
I decided to nag back 3 races and came up with this:
2015 Belmont 1 Mubtaahij 109, 115*, 125* = 110 2 Tale of Verve 93, 79, 65? = 86 3 Madefromlucky 123, 107, 95 = 115 4 Frammento 105x, 105, 70 = 105 5 American Pharoah 103, 122, 121 = 122 6 Frosted 118, 105, 79? = 112 7 Keen Ice 110, 91?, 87? = 101 8 Materiality 111, 106?, 122? = 117 2015 Belmont sorted: 5 American Pharoah 103, 122, 121 = 122 8 Materiality 111, 106?, 122? = 117 3 Madefromlucky 123, 107, 95 = 115 6 Frosted 118, 105, 79? = 112 1 Mubtaahij 109, 115*, 125* = 110 4 Frammento 105x, 105, 70 = 105 7 Keen Ice 110, 91?, 87? = 101 2 Tale of Verve 93, 79, 65? = 86 x = finished 12+ lengths behind * = Rough approximation. About distance, maybe foreign. -10? ? = Educated guess = toss low, average other 2 BTW: I think the track adjustment for GP may be too much. Frosted's 79 was 69 but I bumped it up 10. Fountain of Youth was 146 1/5 for 1 1/16 miles on a fast track. That IS a very slow time...
Materiality has run second to AP before...
2015 Belmont
Brisnet is giving away Belmont past performances:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BelmontStakes15.pdf
I won't be Nag-O-Calcing this race because I know the Preakness was sort of the Freakness. Awful weather and track condition. It was lucky American Pharoah came out alive, much less won.
As I recall, I Nagged the Preakness right after the race and came up with 100 or so. Let's say that is 15% slower than AP is capable of running. The horse was geared down and still won easy.
Consequently, I expect the race to be for second.
If AP wins, the payoffs will all be quite small, but you may be able to profit if you guess the runners up correctly. There were good exacta payouts on both the Derby and Preakness, but AP may be 1/5 here. I don't think a wheel is going to profit this time.
I may drop a few exotics that do not include AP, just on the off-chance the jockey falls off or something. An exotic payout that does not include the favorite should be abnormally large for an eight horse field. The field size will keep it from being monstrous, however. There are only 56 possible exacta combinations, after all.
Good luck to all the horses and YOU, and especially to American Pharoah in his quest to number Triple Crown winners at an even dozen!
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BelmontStakes15.pdf
I won't be Nag-O-Calcing this race because I know the Preakness was sort of the Freakness. Awful weather and track condition. It was lucky American Pharoah came out alive, much less won.
As I recall, I Nagged the Preakness right after the race and came up with 100 or so. Let's say that is 15% slower than AP is capable of running. The horse was geared down and still won easy.
Consequently, I expect the race to be for second.
If AP wins, the payoffs will all be quite small, but you may be able to profit if you guess the runners up correctly. There were good exacta payouts on both the Derby and Preakness, but AP may be 1/5 here. I don't think a wheel is going to profit this time.
I may drop a few exotics that do not include AP, just on the off-chance the jockey falls off or something. An exotic payout that does not include the favorite should be abnormally large for an eight horse field. The field size will keep it from being monstrous, however. There are only 56 possible exacta combinations, after all.
Good luck to all the horses and YOU, and especially to American Pharoah in his quest to number Triple Crown winners at an even dozen!
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