11/05/2011
Pattern:
0: 1 1 1 1 1 1
1: 1 1 1 2 S S
2: 1 2 3 1 S S
3: 1 3 2 3 S S
4: 2 3 3 2 S S
5: 2 2 1 3 S S
6: 2 1 2 1 S S
7: 3 2 2 2 S S
8: 3 1 3 3 S S
9: 3 3 1 1 S S
Total $20 per P6 play (covers about $162)
=========================
8 3 9 10 7 5
6 6 2 4
10 1 6 12
-------------------------
8 3 9 10 7 5
8 3 9 4 7 5
8 6 6 10 7 5
8 1 2 12 7 5
6 1 6 4 7 5
6 6 9 12 7 5
6 3 2 10 7 5
10 6 2 4 7 5
10 3 6 12 7 5
10 1 9 10 7 5
=========================
14 2 9 10 1 5
6 2 12 5
13 5 7 9
-------------------------
14 2 9 10 1 5
14 2 9 10 5 5
14 2 2 7 1 5
14 2 5 12 9 5
6 2 5 7 5 5
6 2 2 10 9 5
6 2 9 12 1 5
13 2 2 12 9 5
13 2 9 7 9 5
13 2 5 10 1 5
=========================
6 2 9 10 7 5
14 3 2 1
8 6 8 5
-------------------------
6 2 9 10 7 5
6 2 9 10 1 5
6 3 8 10 7 5
6 6 2 10 5 5
14 6 8 10 1 5
14 3 9 10 5 5
14 2 2 10 7 5
8 3 2 10 1 5
8 2 8 10 5 5
8 6 9 10 7 5
=========================
6 2 9 10 1 12
7 6 9 5
10 7 10 8
-------------------------
6 2 9 10 1 12
6 2 9 10 1 5
6 2 6 10 10 12
6 2 7 10 9 8
7 2 7 10 10 5
7 2 6 10 1 8
7 2 9 10 9 12
10 2 6 10 9 5
10 2 9 10 10 8
10 2 7 10 1 12
=========================
Saturday, November 5, 2011
Pick6 Plays
Friday, November 4, 2011
BC 2011 Pick Six
Friday's track started out muddy but formful, then quickly dried into pari-mutuel chaos over a “good” track. If it doesn't rain, things should be fast by the start of the Pick Six.
Here is a link to Friday's results:
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/CD110411USA.pdf
Here is link that should work a few hours after the last race on Saturday:
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/CD110511USA.pdf
You can check the results of our selections with the last link.
Pondering the Pick Six
I posted the betting strategy last night, so tonight it's all about horses.
The betting structure calls for 2 “singletons” per play. There are many ways to approach a single, but usually people just want a winner. A lead pipe cinch reduces the pick six to a pick five.
On the other hand, sometimes it's best to reduce a confusing race to a single horse so you can focus on obvious contenders elsewhere. If, somehow, your 30-1 shot wins the 5th leg, you may be the only person alive to multiple horses in the last race. It is not an obvious strategy, but the horses don't really know what there odds are, anyway.
My base handicapping theory hasn't changed a lot over the years. I like horses that have run recently, have good speed, are entered competitively and have competent connections. Speed and class.
I don't focus so much on class, I let the trainers handle that. If they don't think the horse fits they won't enter it (most of the time.) You do need to watch for races as workouts, though.
Glancing through Friday's results spawned a quick theory and here's picks three deep:
The eighth and eleventh call out to be singled using this theory. On the other hand, they both have very nice odds horses that qualify along with the singletons. Take a look at the past performances to see why I prefer “invaders” for these races.
That looks reasonable enough to be the first ticket. Sensible horses, not hyped.
Let's make up something else. Class. We like classy horses. Money measures class.
I need something easy because I'm getting drunk. Sorry. Lifetime money sounds good:
Again, the 11th looks good. The 7th looks pretty good, also. Our two singles.
This seems a reasonable turn of events. Can we combine the two?
So You Think, Union Rags and Midday look strong. I am starting to dig So You Think:
So far, every card has ended with a 5 (So You Think.) Frankly, that could be a mistake.
Anyway, the last card will be entirely gut feelings:
Oops. Three singles ain't right. Which to flesh out? Well, don't want to miss the horse we singled three times, do we? Flesh 11th.
Pease note that each of the tickets described (as directly above) costs $162. We don't have those tickets. We will have some of those tickets. Please reread how tickets will be constructed for $20.
Let's just say, this is pretty close. If “weird” horses not listed here start winning, we're dead anyway.
I will try to get online before I leave, but this may be it before I go. Good luck!
Here is a link to Friday's results:
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/CD110411USA.pdf
Here is link that should work a few hours after the last race on Saturday:
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/CD110511USA.pdf
You can check the results of our selections with the last link.
Pondering the Pick Six
I posted the betting strategy last night, so tonight it's all about horses.
The betting structure calls for 2 “singletons” per play. There are many ways to approach a single, but usually people just want a winner. A lead pipe cinch reduces the pick six to a pick five.
On the other hand, sometimes it's best to reduce a confusing race to a single horse so you can focus on obvious contenders elsewhere. If, somehow, your 30-1 shot wins the 5th leg, you may be the only person alive to multiple horses in the last race. It is not an obvious strategy, but the horses don't really know what there odds are, anyway.
My base handicapping theory hasn't changed a lot over the years. I like horses that have run recently, have good speed, are entered competitively and have competent connections. Speed and class.
I don't focus so much on class, I let the trainers handle that. If they don't think the horse fits they won't enter it (most of the time.) You do need to watch for races as workouts, though.
Glancing through Friday's results spawned a quick theory and here's picks three deep:
6th
8 Regally Ready 3 117
6 California Flag 15 113
10 Havelock 4.5 113
7th
3 Tapizar 20 112
6 Irrefutable 12 112
1 The Factor 3.5 102
8th
9 Midday (GB) 4 ?
8 Brilliant Speed 20 104
Most horses stale.
9th
10 Union Rags 2 95
2 Dullahan 8 94
6 Prospective 30 94
10th
7 Jeranimo 20 116
4 Mr. Commons 20 115
12 Compliance Officer 30 114
11th
5 So You Think (NZ) 5 ?
11 Headache 30 108
The eighth and eleventh call out to be singled using this theory. On the other hand, they both have very nice odds horses that qualify along with the singletons. Take a look at the past performances to see why I prefer “invaders” for these races.
8 3 9 10 7 5
6 6 2 4
10 1 6 12
That looks reasonable enough to be the first ticket. Sensible horses, not hyped.
Let's make up something else. Class. We like classy horses. Money measures class.
I need something easy because I'm getting drunk. Sorry. Lifetime money sounds good:
6th
14 Chamberlain Bridge 5 1.68M
6 California Flag 15 1.23M
13 Caracortado 4 0.77M
7th
2 Shackleford 3.5 1.81M
4 Tres Borrachos 30 0.77M
9 Trappe Shot 3 0.64M
8th
9 Midday (GB) 4 3.44M
2 Sarafina (FR) 2.5 2.06M
5 Teaks North 20 1.00M
9th
10 Union Rags 2 0.50M
12 Fort Luden 20 0.33M
7 Creative Cause 3.5 0.32M
10th
1 Goldikova (IRE) 1.4 6.98M
5 Gio Ponte 4 6.05M
9 Court Vision 30 2.67M
11th
5 So You Think (NZ) 5 7.59M
10 Havre De Grace 3 2.20M
12 Uncle Mo 2.5 1.61M
Again, the 11th looks good. The 7th looks pretty good, also. Our two singles.
14 2 9 10 1 5
6 2 12 5
13 5 7 9
This seems a reasonable turn of events. Can we combine the two?
6th
6 California Flag 15
14 Chamberlain Bridge 5
8 Regally Ready 3
7th
2 Shackleford 3.5
3 Tapizar 20
6 Irrefutable 12
8th
9 Midday (GB) 4
2 Sarafina (FR) 2.5
8 Brilliant Speed 20
9th
10 Union Rags 2
2 Dullahan 8
12 Fort Luden 20
10th
7 Jeranimo 20
1 Goldikova (IRE) 1.4
5 Gio Ponte 4
11th
5 So You Think (NZ) 5
10 Havre De Grace 3
11 Headache 30
So You Think, Union Rags and Midday look strong. I am starting to dig So You Think:
6 2 9 10 7 5
14 3 2 1
8 6 8 5
So far, every card has ended with a 5 (So You Think.) Frankly, that could be a mistake.
Anyway, the last card will be entirely gut feelings:
6th
6 California Flag 15
7 Hoofit (NZ) 15
10 Havelock 4.5
7th
2 Shackleford 3.5
8th
9 Midday (GB) 4
6 Await The Dawn 3.5
7 Sea Moon (GB) 4
9th
10 Union Rags 2
10th
1 Goldikova (IRE) 1.4
9 Court Vision 30
10 Sidney's Candy 15
11th
12 Uncle Mo 2.5
Oops. Three singles ain't right. Which to flesh out? Well, don't want to miss the horse we singled three times, do we? Flesh 11th.
11th
12 Uncle Mo 2.5
5 So You Think (NZ) 5
8 Game On Dude 10
6 2 9 10 1 12
7 6 9 5
10 7 10 8
Pease note that each of the tickets described (as directly above) costs $162. We don't have those tickets. We will have some of those tickets. Please reread how tickets will be constructed for $20.
Let's just say, this is pretty close. If “weird” horses not listed here start winning, we're dead anyway.
I will try to get online before I leave, but this may be it before I go. Good luck!
Thursday, November 3, 2011
BREEDERS' CUP 2011
PICK 6 (RACES 6-11)
We will be using the program (PGM) numbers to construct our tickets:
Odds Observations
Goldikova holds the key to the Pick Six. She is a heavy favorite to win the Turf Mile, yet again. A loss for her will blow the pick 6 wide open.
The Dirt Mile and the Turf (1 ½ miles) have the most contentious morning line odds.
Uncle Mo and Union Rags have very solid odds. Perhaps it will be a day dominated by favorites?
6TH TURF SPRINT (5f Turf)
Regally Ready barely held on at 9-1 last out over a yielding track. May bounce off speed rating.
Turf races can take a long time to form up, even sprints. Inner speed may not matter so much. That said, no horse in here consistently sprints to the lead. Finding a horse who can get in front may be difficult but rewarding.
7TH DIRT MILE
Shackleford is working sharp and shortening up. He ran well here in the Derby.
Trappe Shot favored 9 of 10 last races.
Tapizar good connections and speedy if healthy.
8TH TURF (1 ½ MILES)
Sarafina looks tough. Europeans should own this race, shouldn't they?
9TH JUVENILE (1 1/16th MILES)
Hansen is unbeaten and unchallenged in two races. Ran 111 2/5 inner fraction last.
Alpha from Godolphin run over by unbeaten Union Rags (111 flat inner fraction!)
10TH TURF MILE
Goldikova won six of last ten, second in the other four. Favored every time but has lost her last two races (and the notes show no punch.) Still, she is widely regarded as the key horse today.
Gio Ponte is a winner plus who was second in this race last year.
Court Vision is remarkably consistent for a horse listed here at 30-1.
Would you bet a horse to win his sixth in a row at 30-1? That's Compliance Officer.
11TH CLASSIC (1 ¼ Miles)
Uncle Mo was supposed to win the Triple Crown. Does that mean he's good enough to beat older horses? Probably. Many young ones in here besides Mo. Last race was amazing.
So You Think loves 1 ¼ miles on Turf. Of course, this is dirt. Why no workout over the track?
BTW: You may want to see what DRF's Brad Free has to say about these races.
Pick Six Ticket Design
We will be playing four $20 “shots” that each single two horses and include 3 horses in the other four races. Ordinarily, this would cost $162 each:
3 * 3 * 3 * 3 * 1 * 1 * $2 = $162
Since we only have $80, we obviously can't play a “Cave Man” ticket like that. Instead, we will follow a general pattern that looks like this:
This pattern sort of covers the same horses for $20 as the $162 ticket. Of course, it doesn't really.
Each of the four tickets should approach the pick six from a different angle.
FAVORITES
LONGSHOTS
SPEED
CLASS
I just made this up. Who knows if it's the right approach. We're talking Pick Six and that's a lot like deciding how to play the lottery. Mainly, we're throwing our money out there and hoping to get really, really lucky.
I will mull this over and you won't see a first pass on selections until Friday night.
We'll see how the track plays for the Fillies.
We will be using the program (PGM) numbers to construct our tickets:
6TH TURF SPRINT
PGM HORSE ODDS
1 Grand Adventure 20
2 Holiday For Kitten 30
3 Broken Dreams 20
4 Perfect Officer 12
5 Great Attack 20
6 California Flag 15
7 Hoofit 15
8 Regally Ready 3
9 Rapport 30
10 Havelock 4.5
11 Country Day 20
12 Camp Victory 12
13 Caracortado 4
14 Chamberlain Bridge 5
7TH DIRT MILE
PGM HORSE ODDS
1 The Factor 3.5
2 Shackleford 3.5
3 Tapizar 20
4 Tres Borrachos 30
5 Wilburn 4
6 Irrefutable 12
7 Jersey Town 15
8 Caleb's Posse 5
9 Trappe Shot 3
8TH TURF
PGM HORSE ODDS
1 St Nicholas Abbey (IRE) 4.5
2 Sarafina (FR) 2.5
3 Dean's Kitten 10
4 Stately Victor 30
5 Teaks North 20
6 Await The Dawn 3.5
7 Sea Moon (GB) 4
8 Brilliant Speed 20
9 Midday (GB) 4
9TH JUVENILE
PGM HORSE ODDS
1 Take Charge Indy 30
2 Dullahan 8
3 Crusade 12
4 Drill 8
5 Hansen 10
6 Prospective 30
7 Creative Cause 3.5
8 Speightscity 20
9 Alpha 15
10 Union Rags 2
11 Daddy Long Legs 12
12 Fort Luden 20
13 Optimizer 15
10TH TURF MILE
PGM HORSE ODDS
1 Goldikova (IRE) 1.4
2 Zoffany (IRE) 20
3 Courageous Cat 8
4 Mr. Commons 20
5 Gio Ponte 4
6 Get Stormy 15
7 Jeranimo 20
8 Byword (GB) 12
9 Court Vision 30
10 Sidney's Candy 15
11 Strong Suit 10
12 Compliance Officer 30
13 Turallure 8
11TH CLASSIC
PGM HORSE ODDS
1 Prayer For Relief 30
2 Flat Out 6
3 Drosselmeyer 15
4 Ruler On Ice 30
5 So You Think (NZ) 5
6 Ice Box 30
7 Rattlesnake Bridge 30
8 Game On Dude 10
9 Stay Thirsty 12
10 Havre De Grace 3
11 Headache 30
12 Uncle Mo 2.5
13 To Honor And Serve 12
Odds Observations
Goldikova holds the key to the Pick Six. She is a heavy favorite to win the Turf Mile, yet again. A loss for her will blow the pick 6 wide open.
The Dirt Mile and the Turf (1 ½ miles) have the most contentious morning line odds.
Uncle Mo and Union Rags have very solid odds. Perhaps it will be a day dominated by favorites?
6TH TURF SPRINT (5f Turf)
Regally Ready barely held on at 9-1 last out over a yielding track. May bounce off speed rating.
Turf races can take a long time to form up, even sprints. Inner speed may not matter so much. That said, no horse in here consistently sprints to the lead. Finding a horse who can get in front may be difficult but rewarding.
7TH DIRT MILE
Shackleford is working sharp and shortening up. He ran well here in the Derby.
Trappe Shot favored 9 of 10 last races.
Tapizar good connections and speedy if healthy.
8TH TURF (1 ½ MILES)
Sarafina looks tough. Europeans should own this race, shouldn't they?
9TH JUVENILE (1 1/16th MILES)
Hansen is unbeaten and unchallenged in two races. Ran 111 2/5 inner fraction last.
Alpha from Godolphin run over by unbeaten Union Rags (111 flat inner fraction!)
10TH TURF MILE
Goldikova won six of last ten, second in the other four. Favored every time but has lost her last two races (and the notes show no punch.) Still, she is widely regarded as the key horse today.
Gio Ponte is a winner plus who was second in this race last year.
Court Vision is remarkably consistent for a horse listed here at 30-1.
Would you bet a horse to win his sixth in a row at 30-1? That's Compliance Officer.
11TH CLASSIC (1 ¼ Miles)
Uncle Mo was supposed to win the Triple Crown. Does that mean he's good enough to beat older horses? Probably. Many young ones in here besides Mo. Last race was amazing.
So You Think loves 1 ¼ miles on Turf. Of course, this is dirt. Why no workout over the track?
BTW: You may want to see what DRF's Brad Free has to say about these races.
Pick Six Ticket Design
We will be playing four $20 “shots” that each single two horses and include 3 horses in the other four races. Ordinarily, this would cost $162 each:
3 * 3 * 3 * 3 * 1 * 1 * $2 = $162
Since we only have $80, we obviously can't play a “Cave Man” ticket like that. Instead, we will follow a general pattern that looks like this:
0: 1 1 1 1 1 1 First ticket is all of our top choices
1: 1 1 1 2 S S Second is three top choices, a 2nd choice and our two chosen singles
2: 1 2 3 1 S S Keep varying the pattern
3: 1 3 2 3 S S
4: 2 3 3 2 S S Now start with 2nd choice
5: 2 2 1 3 S S
6: 2 1 2 1 S S
7: 3 2 2 2 S S Here are our 3rd choice tickets
8: 3 1 3 3 S S
9: 3 3 1 1 S S Notice how we tried to balance the selections.
This pattern sort of covers the same horses for $20 as the $162 ticket. Of course, it doesn't really.
Each of the four tickets should approach the pick six from a different angle.
FAVORITES
LONGSHOTS
SPEED
CLASS
I just made this up. Who knows if it's the right approach. We're talking Pick Six and that's a lot like deciding how to play the lottery. Mainly, we're throwing our money out there and hoping to get really, really lucky.
I will mull this over and you won't see a first pass on selections until Friday night.
We'll see how the track plays for the Fillies.
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