Friday, June 6, 2014

Speed May Steal Belmont

Well, I got hold of some past performances for the 2014 Belmont Stakes and I have to say the Peter Pan looks impressive 1:48 1/5 in the slop at Belmont for Tonalist. That's a Nag-O-Calc 143. Would be 123 on a fast track and that is still fast enough to win.

Could be my tools need updating, but the top 3 horses in the Peter Pan look to make an impact in the Belmont. Long odds, too.

I'm starting to think the TC is in question. Good luck to California Chrome but I have to bet mostly against the odds. I don't know any other way to play.

Here's my scratchings:

2014 Belmont

So, my numbers for the Peter Pan Stakes come back huge.

Tonalist  143 (123 if fast track. Still the best SR.)

Wicked Strong
California Chrome

6 * 5 = $30 exacta?

Tonalist sprinted to 46.4 which should give him the lead vs 47.2 others.

Could be a lot of speed up front. If track is tiring...

On the other hand, if track is playing speedy. Tonalist might go WTW.

Six horse exacta box = $30
Tonalist / all = $10
Wicked Strong / all = $10
California Chrome = $1 Superfecta: 1 / 2,3,4 / 2,3,4,5 / 2,3,4,5,6 = $27
(NOTE: These are not program numbers, these are "choices." Your choices for 2nd,3rd,4th etc.)
$77 leaves $7
$2 WIN Commissioner, Matterhorn
$3 WIN Matuzak

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Belmont Stakes 2014

A work in progress...

Victor Espinoza has been here before. One win away from the elusive Triple Crown.

War Emblem stumbled out of the gate and tired from the mile and a half effort. The horse was one-dimensional Espinoza would say later. War Emblem was good, but this horse is better.

The latest horse to threaten the Triple is California Chrome. Victor has never lost a race on this horse. Ever.

California Chrome and Victor Espinoza have won six huge races in a row, convincingly. Never close. Ever.

The trouble of course, is the horse is 3/5. Now if you can get 3/2 on 3/5, that's OK but this is 3/5, maybe less. Probably less. Probably 1/5.

The next trouble is that it has rained and the track will likely be tiring for any horse near the lead.

Either someone goes wire to wire or someone grinds one out. That's the usual Belmont. Usually closers.

Consider the speed if it can get away, but right now I'm thinking about grinders.

There is one grinder who loves this track and that is Wicked Strong. This horse will just grind and grind and grind and grind and grind and grind and grind.

And then he will grind some more.

He's a grinder. And he's my top contender right now for Belmont 2014. Wicked Strong.