2015 Belmont Nag-O-Calc III

Never say never.

I decided to nag back 3 races and came up with this:

2015 Belmont

 1  Mubtaahij         109, 115*, 125* = 110
 2  Tale of Verve      93, 79, 65?    =  86
 3  Madefromlucky     123, 107, 95    = 115
 4  Frammento         105x, 105, 70   = 105
 5  American Pharoah  103, 122, 121   = 122
 6  Frosted           118, 105, 79?   = 112
 7  Keen Ice          110, 91?, 87?   = 101
 8  Materiality       111, 106?, 122? = 117
 
 2015 Belmont sorted:
 
 5  American Pharoah  103, 122, 121   = 122 
 8  Materiality       111, 106?, 122? = 117
 3  Madefromlucky     123, 107, 95    = 115 
 6  Frosted           118, 105, 79?   = 112
 1  Mubtaahij         109, 115*, 125* = 110
 4  Frammento         105x, 105, 70   = 105
 7  Keen Ice          110, 91?, 87?   = 101
 2  Tale of Verve      93, 79, 65?    =  86
 
 x = finished 12+ lengths behind
 * = Rough approximation. About distance, maybe foreign. -10?
 ? = Educated guess
 = toss low, average other 2
 BTW: I think the track adjustment for GP may be too much.
 Frosted's 79 was 69 but I bumped it up 10. Fountain of Youth was
 146 1/5 for 1 1/16 miles on a fast track. That IS a very slow time...

Materiality has run second to AP before...

2015 Belmont

Brisnet is giving away Belmont past performances:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BelmontStakes15.pdf

I won't be Nag-O-Calcing this race because I know the Preakness was sort of the Freakness. Awful weather and track condition. It was lucky American Pharoah came out alive, much less won.

As I recall, I Nagged the Preakness right after the race and came up with 100 or so.  Let's say that is 15% slower than AP is capable of running. The horse was geared down and still won easy.

Consequently, I expect the race to be for second.

If AP wins, the payoffs will all be quite small, but you may be able to profit if you guess the runners up correctly. There were good exacta payouts on both the Derby and Preakness, but AP may be 1/5 here. I don't think a wheel is going to profit this time.

I may drop a few exotics that do not include AP, just on the off-chance the jockey falls off or something. An exotic payout that does not include the favorite should be abnormally large for an eight horse field. The field size will keep it from being monstrous, however. There are only 56 possible exacta combinations, after all.

Good luck to all the horses and YOU, and especially to American Pharoah in his quest to number Triple Crown winners at an even dozen!