Thursday, May 5, 2016

Free 2016 Kentucky Derby Formulator Web Past Performaces

2016 Kentucky Derby Past Performaces

Here's the data, take a look. I'll post my thoughts later.

Daily Racing Form data
Free 2016 Kentucky Derby Formulator Web Past Performaces

Brisnet
Brisnet 2016 Derby PP's PDF

Satan
Mint Julip Recipe

Good Luck,
olrailbird



Friday, June 5, 2015

2015 Belmont Nag-O-Calc III

Never say never.

I decided to nag back 3 races and came up with this:

2015 Belmont

 1  Mubtaahij         109, 115*, 125* = 110
 2  Tale of Verve      93, 79, 65?    =  86
 3  Madefromlucky     123, 107, 95    = 115
 4  Frammento         105x, 105, 70   = 105
 5  American Pharoah  103, 122, 121   = 122
 6  Frosted           118, 105, 79?   = 112
 7  Keen Ice          110, 91?, 87?   = 101
 8  Materiality       111, 106?, 122? = 117
 
 2015 Belmont sorted:
 
 5  American Pharoah  103, 122, 121   = 122 
 8  Materiality       111, 106?, 122? = 117
 3  Madefromlucky     123, 107, 95    = 115 
 6  Frosted           118, 105, 79?   = 112
 1  Mubtaahij         109, 115*, 125* = 110
 4  Frammento         105x, 105, 70   = 105
 7  Keen Ice          110, 91?, 87?   = 101
 2  Tale of Verve      93, 79, 65?    =  86
 
 x = finished 12+ lengths behind
 * = Rough approximation. About distance, maybe foreign. -10?
 ? = Educated guess
 = toss low, average other 2
 BTW: I think the track adjustment for GP may be too much.
 Frosted's 79 was 69 but I bumped it up 10. Fountain of Youth was
 146 1/5 for 1 1/16 miles on a fast track. That IS a very slow time...

Materiality has run second to AP before...

2015 Belmont

Brisnet is giving away Belmont past performances:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BelmontStakes15.pdf

I won't be Nag-O-Calcing this race because I know the Preakness was sort of the Freakness. Awful weather and track condition. It was lucky American Pharoah came out alive, much less won.

As I recall, I Nagged the Preakness right after the race and came up with 100 or so.  Let's say that is 15% slower than AP is capable of running. The horse was geared down and still won easy.

Consequently, I expect the race to be for second.

If AP wins, the payoffs will all be quite small, but you may be able to profit if you guess the runners up correctly. There were good exacta payouts on both the Derby and Preakness, but AP may be 1/5 here. I don't think a wheel is going to profit this time.

I may drop a few exotics that do not include AP, just on the off-chance the jockey falls off or something. An exotic payout that does not include the favorite should be abnormally large for an eight horse field. The field size will keep it from being monstrous, however. There are only 56 possible exacta combinations, after all.

Good luck to all the horses and YOU, and especially to American Pharoah in his quest to number Triple Crown winners at an even dozen!



Friday, May 15, 2015

Nag-O-Calcing the 2015 Preakness

Just the last race. I'm lazy.

1 American Pharoah,122
2 Dortmund,118
3 Mr. Z,101x,107
4 Danzig Moon,113
5 Tale of Verve,79
6 Bodhisattva,86
7 Divining Rod,113
8 Firing Line,121

Nag-O-Calc III mimics the pundits.

1 American Pharoah,122
8 Firing Line,121
2 Dortmund,118
4 Danzig Moon,113
7 Divining Rod,113
3 Mr. Z,101x,107
6 Bodhisattva,86
5 Tale of Verve,79

As I recall, I "nagged" 121 for AP going into the Derby. He went wide, got brushed and still ran 122.

From outside bad post position to inside bad, it looks like this horse will have to earn his shot at history.

Free Preakness Past Performances

If you are looking for free PP's, look here. http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Preakness15.pdf

Friday, June 6, 2014

Speed May Steal Belmont

Well, I got hold of some past performances for the 2014 Belmont Stakes and I have to say the Peter Pan looks impressive 1:48 1/5 in the slop at Belmont for Tonalist. That's a Nag-O-Calc 143. Would be 123 on a fast track and that is still fast enough to win.

Could be my tools need updating, but the top 3 horses in the Peter Pan look to make an impact in the Belmont. Long odds, too.

I'm starting to think the TC is in question. Good luck to California Chrome but I have to bet mostly against the odds. I don't know any other way to play.

Here's my scratchings:

2014 Belmont

So, my numbers for the Peter Pan Stakes come back huge.

Tonalist  143 (123 if fast track. Still the best SR.)
Commissioner
Matterhorn

Wicked Strong
California Chrome
Matusak

6 * 5 = $30 exacta?

Tonalist sprinted to 46.4 which should give him the lead vs 47.2 others.

Could be a lot of speed up front. If track is tiring...

On the other hand, if track is playing speedy. Tonalist might go WTW.

Six horse exacta box = $30
Tonalist / all = $10
Wicked Strong / all = $10
California Chrome = $1 Superfecta: 1 / 2,3,4 / 2,3,4,5 / 2,3,4,5,6 = $27
(NOTE: These are not program numbers, these are "choices." Your choices for 2nd,3rd,4th etc.)
$77 leaves $7
$2 WIN Commissioner, Matterhorn
$3 WIN Matuzak

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Belmont Stakes 2014

A work in progress...

Victor Espinoza has been here before. One win away from the elusive Triple Crown.

War Emblem stumbled out of the gate and tired from the mile and a half effort. The horse was one-dimensional Espinoza would say later. War Emblem was good, but this horse is better.

The latest horse to threaten the Triple is California Chrome. Victor has never lost a race on this horse. Ever.

California Chrome and Victor Espinoza have won six huge races in a row, convincingly. Never close. Ever.

The trouble of course, is the horse is 3/5. Now if you can get 3/2 on 3/5, that's OK but this is 3/5, maybe less. Probably less. Probably 1/5.

The next trouble is that it has rained and the track will likely be tiring for any horse near the lead.

Either someone goes wire to wire or someone grinds one out. That's the usual Belmont. Usually closers.

Consider the speed if it can get away, but right now I'm thinking about grinders.

There is one grinder who loves this track and that is Wicked Strong. This horse will just grind and grind and grind and grind and grind and grind and grind.

And then he will grind some more.

He's a grinder. And he's my top contender right now for Belmont 2014. Wicked Strong.