2015 Belmont Nag-O-Calc III

Never say never.

I decided to nag back 3 races and came up with this:

2015 Belmont

 1  Mubtaahij         109, 115*, 125* = 110
 2  Tale of Verve      93, 79, 65?    =  86
 3  Madefromlucky     123, 107, 95    = 115
 4  Frammento         105x, 105, 70   = 105
 5  American Pharoah  103, 122, 121   = 122
 6  Frosted           118, 105, 79?   = 112
 7  Keen Ice          110, 91?, 87?   = 101
 8  Materiality       111, 106?, 122? = 117
 
 2015 Belmont sorted:
 
 5  American Pharoah  103, 122, 121   = 122 
 8  Materiality       111, 106?, 122? = 117
 3  Madefromlucky     123, 107, 95    = 115 
 6  Frosted           118, 105, 79?   = 112
 1  Mubtaahij         109, 115*, 125* = 110
 4  Frammento         105x, 105, 70   = 105
 7  Keen Ice          110, 91?, 87?   = 101
 2  Tale of Verve      93, 79, 65?    =  86
 
 x = finished 12+ lengths behind
 * = Rough approximation. About distance, maybe foreign. -10?
 ? = Educated guess
 = toss low, average other 2
 BTW: I think the track adjustment for GP may be too much.
 Frosted's 79 was 69 but I bumped it up 10. Fountain of Youth was
 146 1/5 for 1 1/16 miles on a fast track. That IS a very slow time...

Materiality has run second to AP before...