We will be using the program (PGM) numbers to construct our tickets:
6TH TURF SPRINT
PGM HORSE ODDS
1 Grand Adventure 20
2 Holiday For Kitten 30
3 Broken Dreams 20
4 Perfect Officer 12
5 Great Attack 20
6 California Flag 15
7 Hoofit 15
8 Regally Ready 3
9 Rapport 30
10 Havelock 4.5
11 Country Day 20
12 Camp Victory 12
13 Caracortado 4
14 Chamberlain Bridge 5
7TH DIRT MILE
PGM HORSE ODDS
1 The Factor 3.5
2 Shackleford 3.5
3 Tapizar 20
4 Tres Borrachos 30
5 Wilburn 4
6 Irrefutable 12
7 Jersey Town 15
8 Caleb's Posse 5
9 Trappe Shot 3
8TH TURF
PGM HORSE ODDS
1 St Nicholas Abbey (IRE) 4.5
2 Sarafina (FR) 2.5
3 Dean's Kitten 10
4 Stately Victor 30
5 Teaks North 20
6 Await The Dawn 3.5
7 Sea Moon (GB) 4
8 Brilliant Speed 20
9 Midday (GB) 4
9TH JUVENILE
PGM HORSE ODDS
1 Take Charge Indy 30
2 Dullahan 8
3 Crusade 12
4 Drill 8
5 Hansen 10
6 Prospective 30
7 Creative Cause 3.5
8 Speightscity 20
9 Alpha 15
10 Union Rags 2
11 Daddy Long Legs 12
12 Fort Luden 20
13 Optimizer 15
10TH TURF MILE
PGM HORSE ODDS
1 Goldikova (IRE) 1.4
2 Zoffany (IRE) 20
3 Courageous Cat 8
4 Mr. Commons 20
5 Gio Ponte 4
6 Get Stormy 15
7 Jeranimo 20
8 Byword (GB) 12
9 Court Vision 30
10 Sidney's Candy 15
11 Strong Suit 10
12 Compliance Officer 30
13 Turallure 8
11TH CLASSIC
PGM HORSE ODDS
1 Prayer For Relief 30
2 Flat Out 6
3 Drosselmeyer 15
4 Ruler On Ice 30
5 So You Think (NZ) 5
6 Ice Box 30
7 Rattlesnake Bridge 30
8 Game On Dude 10
9 Stay Thirsty 12
10 Havre De Grace 3
11 Headache 30
12 Uncle Mo 2.5
13 To Honor And Serve 12
Odds Observations
Goldikova holds the key to the Pick Six. She is a heavy favorite to win the Turf Mile, yet again. A loss for her will blow the pick 6 wide open.
The Dirt Mile and the Turf (1 ½ miles) have the most contentious morning line odds.
Uncle Mo and Union Rags have very solid odds. Perhaps it will be a day dominated by favorites?
6TH TURF SPRINT (5f Turf)
Regally Ready barely held on at 9-1 last out over a yielding track. May bounce off speed rating.
Turf races can take a long time to form up, even sprints. Inner speed may not matter so much. That said, no horse in here consistently sprints to the lead. Finding a horse who can get in front may be difficult but rewarding.
7TH DIRT MILE
Shackleford is working sharp and shortening up. He ran well here in the Derby.
Trappe Shot favored 9 of 10 last races.
Tapizar good connections and speedy if healthy.
8TH TURF (1 ½ MILES)
Sarafina looks tough. Europeans should own this race, shouldn't they?
9TH JUVENILE (1 1/16th MILES)
Hansen is unbeaten and unchallenged in two races. Ran 111 2/5 inner fraction last.
Alpha from Godolphin run over by unbeaten Union Rags (111 flat inner fraction!)
10TH TURF MILE
Goldikova won six of last ten, second in the other four. Favored every time but has lost her last two races (and the notes show no punch.) Still, she is widely regarded as the key horse today.
Gio Ponte is a winner plus who was second in this race last year.
Court Vision is remarkably consistent for a horse listed here at 30-1.
Would you bet a horse to win his sixth in a row at 30-1? That's Compliance Officer.
11TH CLASSIC (1 ¼ Miles)
Uncle Mo was supposed to win the Triple Crown. Does that mean he's good enough to beat older horses? Probably. Many young ones in here besides Mo. Last race was amazing.
So You Think loves 1 ¼ miles on Turf. Of course, this is dirt. Why no workout over the track?
BTW: You may want to see what DRF's Brad Free has to say about these races.
Pick Six Ticket Design
We will be playing four $20 “shots” that each single two horses and include 3 horses in the other four races. Ordinarily, this would cost $162 each:
3 * 3 * 3 * 3 * 1 * 1 * $2 = $162
Since we only have $80, we obviously can't play a “Cave Man” ticket like that. Instead, we will follow a general pattern that looks like this:
0: 1 1 1 1 1 1 First ticket is all of our top choices
1: 1 1 1 2 S S Second is three top choices, a 2nd choice and our two chosen singles
2: 1 2 3 1 S S Keep varying the pattern
3: 1 3 2 3 S S
4: 2 3 3 2 S S Now start with 2nd choice
5: 2 2 1 3 S S
6: 2 1 2 1 S S
7: 3 2 2 2 S S Here are our 3rd choice tickets
8: 3 1 3 3 S S
9: 3 3 1 1 S S Notice how we tried to balance the selections.
This pattern sort of covers the same horses for $20 as the $162 ticket. Of course, it doesn't really.
Each of the four tickets should approach the pick six from a different angle.
FAVORITES
LONGSHOTS
SPEED
CLASS
I just made this up. Who knows if it's the right approach. We're talking Pick Six and that's a lot like deciding how to play the lottery. Mainly, we're throwing our money out there and hoping to get really, really lucky.
I will mull this over and you won't see a first pass on selections until Friday night.
We'll see how the track plays for the Fillies.
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