Well, I got hold of some past performances for the 2014 Belmont Stakes and I have to say the Peter Pan looks impressive 1:48 1/5 in the slop at Belmont for Tonalist. That's a Nag-O-Calc 143. Would be 123 on a fast track and that is still fast enough to win.
Could be my tools need updating, but the top 3 horses in the Peter Pan look to make an impact in the Belmont. Long odds, too.
I'm starting to think the TC is in question. Good luck to California Chrome but I have to bet mostly against the odds. I don't know any other way to play.
Here's my scratchings:
So, my numbers for the Peter Pan Stakes come back huge.
Tonalist 143 (123 if fast track. Still the best SR.)
6 * 5 = $30 exacta?
Tonalist sprinted to 46.4 which should give him the lead vs 47.2 others.
Could be a lot of speed up front. If track is tiring...
On the other hand, if track is playing speedy. Tonalist might go WTW.
Six horse exacta box = $30
Tonalist / all = $10
Wicked Strong / all = $10
California Chrome = $1 Superfecta: 1 / 2,3,4 / 2,3,4,5 / 2,3,4,5,6 = $27
(NOTE: These are not program numbers, these are "choices." Your choices for 2nd,3rd,4th etc.)
$77 leaves $7
$2 WIN Commissioner, Matterhorn
$3 WIN Matuzak